MLB Player Prop Picks Today | Blake Snell & More
Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images. Pictured: Blake Snell (Padres)
This is the last Saturday slate of the first half of the MLB season, and as usual, it's loaded with action.
We have plenty of talent on the hill and some very friendly hitter environments.
Let's see how we can use it all to our advantage in today's top MLB player props.
MLB Player Props For Saturday, July 8
Braxton Garrett Under 17.5 Outs Recorded -130
|Phillies vs. Marlins|
|First Pitch||4:10 pm ET|
Braxton Garrett's ascension this season has helped propel the Marlins into the playoff picture. However, the 25-year-old lefty has been mighty fortunate and is facing a Phillies lineup that's begun to heat up with the weather.
Garrett comes into this outing ranking in the 11th percentile amongst all qualified pitchers in average exit velocity allowed and hard-hit rate. That's not the level of hard contact you would expect out of a pitcher with a 3.61 ERA, and it's the biggest indicator for his impending regression.
Garrett's xERA is 4.81, and the Phillies are going to help him get closer to that number this afternoon. However, we're going to fade him by banking on a short outing.
While Garrett has put together some solid performances this season, he's only gone at least six innings three times this year, and that feeds into a much longer trend. Garrett has gone under this total in 76.5% of his last 34 starts.
That gives us whopping implied odds of -325 that he'll go under this afternoon.
Pick: Braxton Garrett Under 17.5 Pitching Outs -130
Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 Total Bases +117
|Royals vs. Guardians|
|First Pitch||4:10 pm ET|
Progressive Field will be one of the best hitting environments on the slate, as the wind will be blowing out and temperatures in Cleveland will be in the low 80s by the first pitch.
The man who'll benefit the most from the conditions this afternoon will be Jose Ramirez.
Now, Ramirez has had some dramatic splits from each side of the plate this season, as he's hitting .330 from the right side of the plate but just .202 from the left side.
However, Ramirez is also a career .280 hitter from the left side, so he's bound to come around. And there may not be a better pitcher to do that against than Brady Singer.
Singer has been one of the hardest-hit pitchers in baseball this season, as he enters ranking in the first percentile in hard-hit rate and the fifth percentile in average exit velocity.
So, with nearly everything working in his favor this afternoon, Ramirez is a strong pick to collect some extra bases this afternoon.
Pick: Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 Total Bases +117
Blake Snell Under 7.5 Strikeouts -120
|Mets vs. Padres|
|First Pitch||10:10 pm|
Blake Snell has been dominant over his last nine starts, as he's only allowed four earned runs over that span. He had a 0.87 ERA in June and racked up a staggering 53 strikeouts in five starts.
He carried that success over to July in his first start of this month, as he punched out seven Angels over five innings.
However, tonight he'll face a Mets lineup that's come to life in July, and they also hold the fifth-lowest strikeout rate in the majors.
While Snell has been nearly untouchable for the last month or so, he's due for some regression. This total has proven to be a tad too high for Snell over the last two seasons, as he's gone under in 68.9% of his last 45 starts.
According to our Action Labs projections, this is the top play as they have him slated for six strikeouts tonight.