Today’s MLB Player Props: Odds, Picks for Mike Clevinger, Jose Urquidy & More (Sunday, April 30)
Stephen Maturen/Getty Images. Pictured: Jose Urquidy (65) of the Houston Astros.
We are looking to close out the week on a high note after a 2-1 Saturday. Today's collection of starters is vastly different from yesterday's, but we can still profit by fading a few in unique fashions. So, let's not waste any more time and dive into our top MLB player props for today's slate.
MLB Player Props · Sunday, April 30
Chris Sale Over 4.5 Strikeouts -145
| Guardians vs. Red Sox | |
| First Pitch | 1:35 pm ET |
| Best Line | bet365 |
Just two starts ago, many claimed that Chris Sale was back. He had just dominated the Twins by racking up 11 strikeouts over six innings of work. However, Sale's latest start caused some immediate retractions as the Orioles clobbered him.
Although, what was most notable about that outing against the Orioles is that Sale recorded zero strikeouts. It was just the second time in his career that Sale had made a start and ended it with no strikeouts.
That performance has created an opportunity to back his positive regression: His strikeout total this afternoon is far too low. Recency bias and the fact that he's facing the team with the second-lowest strikeout rate in the majors have put his total at 4.5.
Sale has sailed over this total in 13 of his last 19 starts, including four of his five starts this season. Sale should right the ship even in a tough matchup and go over this total once again.
Pick: Over 4.5 strikeouts
Mike Clevinger Over 1.5 Walks -160
| Rays vs. White Sox | |
| First Pitch | 2:10 pm ET |
| Best Line | bet365 |
Entering the season, Mike Clevinger seemed like a sneaky addition to the backend of this White Sox rotation as he flashed improved stuff during spring. However, while he has maintained his increased velocity, it has impacted his command.
Not only has Clevinger made quite a few mistakes in the strike zone, but he's also had more trouble finding it. His walk rate is up more than 5% from last season, and it ranks in the bottom 20% of all MLB starters.
This afternoon, he'll face the hottest offense in baseball, and he will need to be extra careful with the Rays' hitters. Add that to the fact that he has gone over this total in four of his five starts this season, which makes it 15 of his last 27 outings over the past two seasons. It's very likely we will witness Clevinger surrender multiple walks again.
Pick: Over 1.5 walks
Jose Urquidy Under 5.5 Strikeouts -140
| Phillies vs. Astros | |
| First Pitch | 7:10 pm ET |
| Best Line | bet365 |
We're going back to the well here. Yesterday, we faded Cristian Javier's strikeout total — and while it was a bit of sweat, it got there at plus money. Tonight, we have a bit more juice to pay, but it is worth the squeeze.
Jose Urquidy is not a strikeout pitcher, and that has been proven over a large sample size. During his last 35 starts, Urquidy has gone under this total 68.6% of the time. That includes going under in four of his five starts this season.
In yesterday's piece, we highlighted how the Phillies have begun to cut their strikeout rate during the last week. The last two games have proven that: Philadelphia now ranks 14th in team strikeout rate after entering the series in the top 10.
Back the Phillies, who are trending in the right direction, by fading Urquidy tonight.
Pick: Under 5.5 strikeouts
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