MLB Props Today | Odds, Picks for Logan Allen, Yu Darvish
Mitchell Layton/Getty Images. Pictured: Logan Allen #41 of the Cleveland Guardians.
- Our MLB props analyst has a trio of pitcher prop bets ready for Saturday.
- He's backing three pitchers, including Jose Berrios and Logan Allen to exceed their strikeout totals.
- Find Doug Ziefel's MLB player props picks and analysis below.
We have yet another action-packed slate ahead of us this Saturday, and the player prop market is filled with edges. However, I've dialed in on three men who are due for various amounts of success today. Let's see who they are and how we're betting them in today's top MLB player props.
MLB Player Props For Saturday, June 3
Jose Berrios over 4.5 strikeouts +105
|Blue Jays vs. Mets||Blue Jays -115|
|First Pitch||4:10 pm ET|
Don't look now, but Jose Berrios appears to have figured it out after struggling mightily in a Blue Jays uniform. He has not surrendered more than three runs in any of his last five starts, and the strikeouts have picked up as well.
Berrios' strikeout rate is up nearly 4% from last season, and it's because he's been setting up his slurve better with his sinker. Berrios is now throwing his sinker more than his four-seamer, and it has allowed him to work the outer half of the plate more effectively to right-handed hitters.
His effective tunneling has led to an increase in whiff rate in both his sinker and slurve. As a result, we should see those two pitches a ton against the Mets this afternoon.
While the Mets are a tough team to strike out, Berrios has proven he can surpass this total. Over his last 43 starts, he has gone over this total in 55.8% of them. Not to mention he's also surpassed it in eight of 10 starts this season.
Back Berrios to continue his strikeout success this afternoon.
Pick: over 4.5 strikeouts (+105)
Logan Allen over 4.5 strikeouts -115
|Guardians vs. Twins||Twins -140|
|First Pitch||7:15 pm ET|
Oddsmakers love this line of 4.5 today, but unfortunately for them, it once again is too low. Logan Allen is just one of the many talented young arms the Guardians have on their staff, and tonight he has a great matchup in front of him.
Allen is lined up to face the Minnesota Twins, who come in with the highest strikeout rate in the majors. Allen poses a major threat to this lineup, as he has not one but two pitches with whiff rates above 35%.
This pick is straightforward. You have Allen, who's surpassed this total in four of his seven starts this season, against the worst strikeout team in the league.
However, one last thing that makes this a great pick is that our Action Labs projections love Allen's over tonight. They have him projected for 5.6 strikeouts, but given Minnesota's struggles, he may even surpass that projection.
Pick: over 4.5 strikeouts -115
Yu Darvish under 6.5 strikeouts +115
|Cubs vs. Padres||Padres -175|
|First Pitch||10:10 pm ET|
We've had two overs, and now it's time for an under as we are fading Yu Darvish tonight. We've begun to see some minor signs of regression from Darvish in his age 36 season.
His faulty starts have been a command issue, as he's had more difficulty locating his diverse arsenal than in years past. His walk rate, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity are all up through his first 10 starts.
This has impacted his ability to finish off hitters with two strikes, as his strikeout rate is down almost 4% from 2021. While he is facing a Cubs lineup that has the 10th-highest strikeout rate in the league, they are also very dangerous and could shorten his outing if his command issues continue.
Darvish has gone under this total in seven of 10 starts this season, but that only adds to a longer trend. Over his last 44 starts, he has gone under in 54.5% of them.
That gives us implied odds of -119 that he'll go under again tonight, which is tremendous line value at this price.
Pick: under 6.5 strikeout (+115)