MLB Props Today | Odds, Picks for Ken Waldichuk, Freddy Peralta, Corbin Carroll (Sunday, August 13)
Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images. Pictured: Corbin Carroll #7 of the Arizona Diamondbacks
Tony Gonsolin barely outperformed expectations on Saturday to hand us a losing day, but bouncing back on Sundays has been a theme this season. And I'm confident in the three men below.
So let's dive into top MLB player props today and finish the weekend strong.
MLB Player Props For Sunday, August 13
Ken Waldichuk (OAK) Under 5.5 Strikeouts -110
|Athletics vs Nationals||Red Sox -130|
|First Pitch||1:35 p.m. ET|
Ken Waldichuk's under is the top play on the slate, according to our Action Labs projections, and there are multiple reasons why.
First, he has one of the toughest matchups you could draw in terms of picking up strikeouts because he's slated to face the Washington Nationals this afternoon.
The Nationals have the second-lowest strikeout rate in the majors. They strike out more than 3% less than the league average. Secondly, Waldichuk is likely due for some strikeout regression overall.
He is averaging just above a strikeout per inning, but with his whiff rate in the 44th percentile and his strikeout rate in the 38th percentile, he appears to have been fortunate to have the number of strikeouts that he already does.
Lastly, this total has proven to be too high for Waldichuk in his first two seasons in the majors. He has gone under this total in 75.8% of his 33 appearances in the big leagues.
That gives us staggering implied odds of -312 that he will go under again this afternoon.
Pick: Under 5.5 Strikeouts -110
Freddy Peralta (MIL) under 7.5 strikeouts -120
|Brewers vs White Sox||Brewers -135|
|First Pitch||2:10 p.m. ET|
If you're looking for a strikeout pitcher, well, then you should look no further than Freddy Peralta.
Peralta's electric stuff has been on full display this season, and batters have had a tough time touching it.
His whiff rate is in the 92nd percentile, and his strikeout rate sits in the 88th percentile. On top of all that, he has a great matchup this afternoon. The White Sox are a team prone to striking out because they chase more pitches than any team in the majors.
However, we are fading Peralta. His total is slightly inflated due to his recent performances. He's racked up double-digit strikeouts in three of his last six starts, though the numbers show that those are outliers and not his new norm.
Peralta has gone under this total in 75% of his last 40 starts. That gives us implied odds of -300 that he will go under today.
In addition, our Action Labs projections love this under as much as the one above. They have Peralta slated for six strikeouts this afternoon.
Pick: Under 7.5 Strikeouts -120
Corbin Carroll (ARI) Over 1.5 Total Bases +125
|Padres vs Diamondbacks||Padres -135|
|First Pitch||4:10 p.m. ET|
Corbin Carroll has put together a tremendous rookie season and lived up to all the hype. Caroll is known as one of the fastest players in the league, but he has struck the ball with authority this season as well.
Carroll's max exit velocity sits in the 90th percentile, and it is that ability to punish the baseball that gives him value today.
Today, Carroll will get to take his first few at-bats against San Diego's Seth Lugo.
Lugo has not shown much consistency in his first season out west, and he's allowed a ton of hard contact. He sits in the 21st percentile in average exit velocity allowed and in the 33rd in hard-hit rate allowed.
On top of that, lefties have been doing most of that damage as they have a 37% hard-hit rate against him and are slugging more than 100 points higher than righties against Lugo.
Carroll has an excellent matchup, and he should be able to find one of the large gaps at Chase Field to pick up some extra bases today.
Pick: Over 1.5 Total Bases +125