MLB Props Today | Odds, Picks for Marcus Stroman (Saturday, July 1)
Photo by Mary DeCicco/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Marcus Stroman (Cubs)
This Saturday slate is filled with action on the diamond, and you can get in on it in a variety of ways.
Below I've highlighted my top three player props for the slate.
So, let's dive in and meet the three men who are going to help line your pockets.
MLB Player Props For Saturday, July 1
Justin Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases +123
|Red Sox vs. Blue Jays|
|First Pitch||3:07 pm ET|
Justin Turner has proven his worth in his age 38 season, as he comes into this matchup hitting .272 with 12 homers and 43 RBI.
However, we all know that RedTurn feasts on left-handed pitching, and this season has been no different.
In 85 at-bats against lefties, Turner is hitting .271 with a .908 OPS. A majority of that contact has been loud, as he ranks in the 72nd percentile in average exit velocity and 54th in hard-hit rate.
This afternoon, he'll get to face a left-hander in Yusei Kikuchi who's made surrendering hard contact a theme in his Toronto tenure. Kikuchi ranks in the 24th percentile in hard-hit rate and 15th in barrel rate.
Righties have seen the ball well from Kikuchi — as they have a 38% hard-hit rate off of him — and that has translated into a .282 BABIP.
Turner is the perfect guy to do damage against Kikuchi this afternoon.
Pick: Justin Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases
Nick Castellanos Over 1.5 Total Bases +105
|Nationals vs. Phillies|
|First Pitch||4:05 pm ET|
After a rough first season in the "City of Brotherly Love," Nick Castellanos has been tearing it up for the Phils this season and is showing why he was a key free agent acquisition.
Castellanos is hitting .309 with 10 homers and 49 RBI.
Much like the man above, Castellanos also has significant splits against lefties, and he'll be matched up with one today. In 84 at-bats, he's hitting .345 with a .956 OPS against lefties this season.
Splits like that make this matchup against MacKenzie Gore jump off the page. It also helps that Gore hasn't limited hard contact well this season. He ranks in the 10th percentile in hard-hit rate and 13th percentile in barrel rate.
Pair that with Castellanos — who ranks in the 72nd percentile in hard-hit and barrel rate — and you have yourself a recipe for some extra bases.
Pick: Nick Castellanos Over 1.5 Total Bases
Marcus Stroman Over 3.5 Strikeouts -154
|Guardians vs. Cubs|
|First Pitch||7:15 pm ET|
The Stro show has been the headliner in Chicago, as Marcus Stroman has never looked better.
Stroman holds a 2.47 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP through 17 starts, and tonight, the show will go on against the Guardians.
Cleveland has struggled mightily at the dish this season, but one area where it's excelled is putting the ball in play. The Guardians come into this matchup with the second-lowest strikeout rate in the majors.
However, that low strikeout rate has impacted Stroman's strikeout total to the point where it's far too low.
Stroman may not be the prototypical strikeout pitcher, but he's proven on many occasions he can eclipse this total.
Over his last 42 starts, Stroman has had at least four strikeouts 73.8% of the time. That gives implied odds of -281 that he'll go over again tonight despite the tough matchup.
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