Dodgers vs Nationals Odds & Pick: MLB Betting Prediction

The latest Dodgers vs Nationals odds for Tuesday have the Dodgers as heavy -275 favorites on the moneyline, with an over/under set at 9.5. My Dodgers vs Nationals betting prediction, however, is on the run line as I like Los Angeles to cover (-1.5).

Los Angeles is looking to bounce back after surprisingly dropping the series opener at Dodger Stadium. Rookie Mitchell Parker became the first Nationals pitcher to win his debut start since Stephen Strasburg over a decade ago. On Tuesday, the Dodgers have a nice rebound spot against left-hander Patrick Corbin, who is among the worst pitchers in MLB.

Find my MLB betting preview and Dodgers vs Nationals pick below.

Through 16 innings over three starts this season, Corbin has amassed an 8.44 ERA.

While Corbin has been one of the more ineffective pitchers in the league over the last few years, his ERA is still inflated. Corbin boasts a very high .424 BABIP and a meager 56.7% strand rate. These numbers should both regress closer to his typical average. His xERA of 5.62 and FIP of 4.37 may better represent what Corbin has shown this year.

Still, Corbin isn't very good. His Stuff+ mark is only 79, which ranks 74th of 79 qualifying pitchers this year. His 81 Stuff+ mark last year was the second-worst figure in the league.

We know who Corbin is, and that's a very hittable pitcher.

He hasn't even faced many elite offenses. Corbin has started against the Reds, Giants and Phillies, all of whom rank in the league's bottom half by wRC+.

The Dodgers rank sixth in wRC+, so this will be Corbin's toughest test to date.

The Nationals offense ranks 20th in wRC+ and 18th in wOBA, making them a below-average lineup.

While the Dodgers boast an elite lineup, they're closer to league-average against left-handed pitching, ranking 15th in wOBA and wRC+ this year.

The Dodgers faced another lefty on Monday night in Parker, and they deployed a lineup featuring Chris Taylor and Miguel Rojas in place of James Outman and Gavin Lux. I'd imagine we'll see the same lineup on Tuesday.

Parker allowed two earned over five innings with four strikeouts in his Major League debut. While he's a better pitcher than Corbin, I'd still closely watch how the Dodgers perform against lefties.

Per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register, the Dodgers will go with a bullpen game in this one, using Ryan Yarbrough as the "bulk" starter. This strategy could prove effective, given they lack a clear fifth starter.

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The Dodgers struggle against southpaws, but Corbin is horrendous.

So, I'll take the Dodgers on the run line at -115, banking on them bouncing back from Monday's uncharacteristic loss.

Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (-115)