Nationals vs Mets Game 2 Pick Today | Tuesday MLB Betting Preview (October 4)
Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images. Pictured: Pete Alonso (Mets)
- The Mets need to win out and hope the Braves lose their final two games in order to win the NL East.
- On Tuesday night, they take on the Nationals with Taijuan Walker facing off against Paolo Espino.
- Doug Ziefel explains why you should target the total with these two pitchers on the hill.
Nationals vs. Mets Odds
| Nationals Odds | +235 |
| Mets Odds | -290 |
| Over/Under | 7 |
| Time | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
After a deflating weekend series against the Braves, the Mets return home with the slightest glimmer of hope ahead of this series with the Nationals.
In order for the Mets to claim the NL East, they must win out and the Braves must lose their final two games. Part of why New York is in this predicament is that it lost its last series to the Nationals just a month ago.
After the trade deadline, everyone was out on Washington, as many thought it would quickly plummet to the bottom of the barrel.
However, that has not been the case. The Nationals have some excellent young players who are flourishing in their opportunity at the big league circuit, and they are the perfect club to play spoiler once again.
As I mentioned earlier, this is a must-win game for New York, and it will be on the shoulders of Taijuan Walker to give his club one more solid effort. Walker has done his best to fight off the regression monster in the second half, but it has got to him, and it may have one last gasp here tonight.
How will that factor into our handicap? Let's take a closer look to find out.
Nats Match Up Well With Walker
The Washington Nationals have hit their stride of late, leading to them playing spoiler around the National League.
Over the last month, the Nationals are seventh in team batting average. While all their hits have not led to many runs, their ability to make hard contact and create traffic is key against Walker.
Walker has had more than his fair share of struggles in the second half, as he has a 5.12 ERA. Unfortunately, it is a repeat of last season, as his splits were very similar.
Despite his best efforts, his metrics show that he is still due to regress. The most significant indicators are his FIP of 3.79 and his xERA of 4.02.
The main issue for Walker in the second half has been his inability to create swings and misses. While he has become much more of a ground-ball pitcher this season, his ground-ball rate is nowhere near where it needs to be.
Of course, frequent and hard contact come along with this approach, but it has caught up to Walker. He's given up nearly the same amount of hits in the second half than he did in the first half — except he's thrown 30 fewer innings.
Look out for Joey Meneses. He has been on a tear since being called up, and he will make his presence felt if Walker continues to serve up hittable pitches.
Mets' Lineup Ready to Shine?
The Mets' bats went relatively quiet in Atlanta this past weekend, but they have an opportunity to get back on track tonight against Paolo Espino.
The 35-year-old Espino has been battered this season, as he enters with a baseball savant page that is much bluer than the Hudson River.
He is a strike thrower, but he lacks the stuff to keep hitters off balance consistently, and he has been punished for it. His high ERA and WHIP show that. However, those numbers should actually be worse, as his xERA is 4.58 and his FIP is 4.54.
On top of his negative regression, the Mets are due for some positive regression against Espino specifically. They have compiled 53 at-bats against Espino and are hitting just .222 as a team with four extra-base hits.
However, they have made a great deal of hard contact, as their Average Exit Velocity off of him is 91.4 mph and their average launch angle is 19.3 degrees.
Those two metrics are critical as they can translate to hard-hit balls and extra bases if it continues.
This is displayed in their expected stats, as well. Their xBA is .269 and their xSLG is .483, which is over 100 points higher than their current slugging percentage against Espino.
Nationals-Mets Pick
Entering their final outings of the season, both starters are trending in the wrong direction. Walker and Espino allow a ton of hard contact, which is not a recipe for success against either of these lineups.
I'm banking on this game going over the total tonight.
Pick: Over 7 (Play to 7.5)
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