Nationals vs Phillies Picks Today | MLB Odds, Predictions for Monday, August 7
Via Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Bryce Harper #3 of the Philadelphia Phillies bats against the Baltimore Orioles at Citizens Bank Park on July 24, 2023 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
Nationals vs. Phillies Odds
-110 / -110
-110 / -110
The Nationals have won 11 of their last 16 games, while averaging 5.25 runs scored per game. In Monday's series opener with the Phillies, they will match up against Ranger Suarez, who owns an ERA of 4.01 across 85 and 2/3 innings.
Washington will start Trevor Williams, who owns an ERA of 4.72 in 108 and 2/3 innings this season, including a 5.97 ERA in 28 and 2/3 innings in the month of July. Here's a look at the odds and my Nationals vs. Phillies betting pick and prediction.
Trevor Williams has struggled badly over the last two months, and it seems likely he will continue to serve as a well below-average starter. He has posted a miserable 5.50 ERA to go along with a 1.70 WHIP over his last 53 and 2/3 innings.
His season xERA now sits at 5.18, and his xFIP comes in at 5.19. None of Williams five pitches rate better than average, and overall, he's pitched to a Stuff+ of 81, with a Location+ of 104.
Batters own an xSLG of .500 on the low-velocity Williams fastball, which he throws 47.7% of the time. Since the 2021 season batters also own an OPS of .847 versus Williams' non-fastball pitches, however, and the rest of his arsenal continues to be crushed this season.
Washington's bullpen has struggled badly of late and is not well suited to pick Williams up if he falters early. Over the last 30 days, Nationals relievers own a 29th-ranked ERA of 5.80 and a 24th-ranked xFIP of 4.79.
The Nationals' strong offensive play has been the driving force behind their recent 11-5 surge. They have hit to a wRC+ of 101 over the last 30 days, with the fourth-lowest strikeout rate in the league at 19.2%. Washington has also been dominant versus left-handed pitching this season with a wRC+ of 109.
Ranger Suarez' recent results have looked quite comparable to those of Williams. Over his last 34 and 1/3 innings, Suarez has pitched to a WHIP of 1.77, and his xBA is now in the 17th-worst percentile.
His K% has trended downward over the last handful of starts, and his hard-hit rate has been averaging close to 40% in that same span.
Pitching models do not rate Suarez highly either. He owns a Stuff+ mark of 84, and a Location+ of 102.
As with many ground-ball pitchers, perhaps some of those numbers underrate what makes Suarez a steady MLB starter. Even still, his xERA of 4.50 seems to be a fair projection for his outings moving forward.
The Phillies have hit to a wRC+ of 98 versus right-handed pitching this season, and they are only missing Brandon Marsh from what has been their most consistent lineup.
Nationals vs. Phillies Betting Pick
Washington has been in tremendous offensive form recently, and it has quietly had a drastically better-than-average side in splits versus lefties this season. They will provide a tough test for Suarez, who is trending toward below-average results as a starter.
Williams has put up disastrous results since the All-Star break, with an underlying profile that suggests his struggles are destined to continue. The Phillies should be able to do some damage versus the soft-throwing righty and easily get into a Nationals bullpen that has been a complete disaster of late.
Even 9.5 is not a high enough total for this matchup, in which we could easily see either side have a huge offensive day. Anything better than -125 is enough for me to play the over at 9.5 in this matchup, especially if the wind ends up blowing out toward center field.
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