Orioles vs Angels Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Monday, September 4
Via Scott Taetsch/Getty Images. Pictured: Grayson Rodriguez #30 of the Baltimore Orioles pitches against the Toronto Blue Jays during the first inning at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on August 22, 2023 in Baltimore, Maryland.
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Orioles vs. Angels Odds
The Baltimore Orioles have now won eight of 11 after toppling the Diamondbacks on Sunday to earn yet another series victory. Now, they'll continue their West Coast road trip in Anaheim, where they'll face the Angels.
Can the Orioles' prized young arm continue to dominate against an Angels team that has fallen out of the Wild Card race? Let's break it all down in our Orioles vs. Angels preview and prediction.
Grayson Rodriguez is beginning to prove why he was considered the top pitching prospect in all of baseball at the beginning of the season.
The right-hander posted a sparkling 2.64 ERA in the month of August, striking out 27 in 30 2/3 innings. He's coming off of the best start of his career, when he threw six one-hit innings against the White Sox with six punchouts. I'm here to tell you that it's no fluke.
Rodriguez was a huge strikeout arm down in the minors, but as we know it's incredibly difficult to maintain sky-high rates against big-league competition. He did a decent enough job early on, but he didn't strike out nearly enough hitters, and as a result he had some huge issues pitching to contact.
He's finally figured out how to strike a balance between the two aspects of pitching with some seasoning in the minors. Rodriguez brought his Ground-Ball Rate up to 55% in July and maintained that number in August. As a result, he posted a career-best .217 xBA last month. It appears Rodriguez has already ironed out a lot of issues.
The Angels own just a 94 wRC+ over the second half of the season, but without Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout and Taylor Ward, it's now just Luis Rengifo powering this offense. That's certainly not a recipe for sustained offensive success, even though I'm a huge Rengifo fan. With Los Angeles now 12 1/2 games out of the Wild Card race, it's very hard to believe in this offense on a nightly basis.
It's even harder to believe in their starter on Monday, Kenny Rosenberg. The 28-year-old is a career minor-leaguer, pitching just 17 2/3 innings at the big-league level with a 5.09 ERA over the last two seasons. He's made 20 starts in Triple-A this season, registering a 4.95 ERA and a .268 opponent batting average.
The left-hander has also worsened as the season has progressed with a 6.66 ERA in July before his promotion. He's really struggled with walks, allowing them at a 10.3% clip in Triple-A and walking seven in seven big-league innings this year.
Orioles vs. Angels
Betting Pick & Prediction
Baltimore's excellent 110 wRC+ against lefties and its 9.4% Walk Rate within the split give me a lot of confidence in the road team tonight. Outside of Luis Rengifo, the Angles are struggling at the plate, and Rosenberg could be the worst starting pitcher in the majors right now.
I'm really confident in Rodriguez's ability to dominate this matchup. The Angels are a fly-ball-happy team with swing-and-miss issues, so no matter how you slice it, the rookie will have no issues getting outs. I love to play ground-ball pitchers against fly-ball teams, and Rodriguez has to be classified as such with a 55% Ground-Ball Rate over the last two months.
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