MLB Odds, Picks for Orioles vs. Astros
Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images. Pictured: Hunter Brown (Giants)
Orioles vs. Astros Odds
After a stunning collapse in the series opener, Houston will look to build upon its 1.5-game lead in the division on Tuesday.
In a matchup between Kyle Gibson (4.98 ERA, 175 2/3 IP) and Hunter Brown (4.61 ERA, 146 1/3 IP), oddsmakers make the Astros -155 favorites.
Gibson will look to improve on what's been a better month thus far. In two September appearances against St. Louis and Los Angeles, Gibson has worked to a 2.84 ERA and 1.11 WHIP.
To look to a larger sample though, Gibson has struggled to a 5.62 ERA in 65 2/3 innings since the All-Star break. He owns a WHIP of 1.34 during that time and his xwOBA has climbed up to .364 entering this matchup.
Gibson's stuff doesn't rate overly well and his modest arsenal has led to a lot of hard contact this season. He owns a Stuff+ of 92 and has been hard-hit 44.1% of the time.
Opponents have hit .270 versus Gibson, which is the second-highest mark among qualified starters.
The Orioles' wRC+ of 121 over the last 30 days ranks fourth league wide. They own a wRC+ of 104 versus right-handed pitching this season and have struck out 22.4% of the time.
Brown's strong arm talent hasn't paid off this season, especially of late. Brown owns a 5.50 ERA in 52 1/3 innings since the All-Star break and has allowed a WHIP of 1.36. His single-game xFIP has averaged 3.69 in those outings and sits at 3.43 this season.
Brown's 105 Stuff+ and 101 Pitching+ ratings are also encouraging.
A .336 BABIP and .331 average with RISP have tanked Brown's earned run average, but he should be able to improve those marks the rest of the way.
Houston's 143 wRC+ over the last 30 days is the best mark in baseball. It has struck out just 15.9% of the time, which is two percent better than any other side in the league.
Orioles vs. Astros
Betting Pick & Prediction
Houston's high-powered offense is likely to do damage off of Gibson early in this one and could spot Brown a lead.
Aside from a dominant outing versus Oakland, Brown enters this one off of a rough stretch of results. He's been unlucky in those starts though, and still profiles as a better-than-average starting option who should find better form down the stretch.
Baltimore has been considerably less potent in splits to right-handed pitching this season and offers a tough but not horrid matchup.
At the opening prices, the Astros were the more valuable side in this matchup. But the significant line movement makes the prices more fair. A way to target a solid day from Brown and the Astros that's still on the board could be backing a long-shot with Brown to record the win.
Brown's inability to pitch out of the fifth inning recently is part of the reason that the number arrives at +265 here. However, Brown has been quite bad on batted balls getting down for hits in that period.
Better luck on that front on Tuesday could lead to the 15 outs needed to record a win, and he's still priced at -190 to record over 14.5 outs.
The Astros are -120 to lead after five innings, and if anything, that number is still playable. We will need any lead to hold through the final frames, but at +265, I think we have the right number, considering my belief that he can exit with a lead.