The San Diego Padres (76-63) and Baltimore Orioles (63-76) will face off in the MLB this afternoon. First pitch from PETCO Park is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. The game will broadcast live on SDPA.
San Diego is a -170 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Baltimore is +140 to pull off the upset. The over/under is set at 8.5 total runs.
Continue below for my Orioles vs Padres predictions and MLB picks for Wednesday, September 3, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Orioles vs Padres Prediction
- Orioles vs Padres pick: Under 8.5 Runs (-115)
My Padres vs. Orioles best bet is on the under, with the best price currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Orioles vs Padres Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 8.5 +100o / -120u | +140 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 8.5 +100o / -120u | -170 |
Orioles vs Padres Preview, Picks
This MLB betting system titled "Steam Unders with Low OU Support" is built on the premise that sharp money moving totals downward, paired with weak public support on the under, creates an exploitable edge in the betting market.
The strategy focuses on regular season games from 2019 to 2025 where the closing total lands between 8 and 10 — sweet spots for scoring volatility, which is the case in today's matchup between the Padres and Orioles.
It isolates games where the over/under line has dropped significantly from open to close, signaling smart money on the under, yet public sentiment heavily favors the over, with only a small share of bets backing the under.
This mismatch between money and ticket count indicates potential value, especially when the difference between those two figures is meaningful but not extreme.
To reduce noise, the system excludes games played in extreme heat or cold, only including those where temperatures range from mild to warm.
It also requires both teams to have a recent record of games that hover around the total, suggesting no extreme streaks skewing expectations.
These filters ensure that neither team is riding unsustainable over or under trends.
Ultimately, this system looks for low-confidence unders that have been steamed down by sharp bettors, where public interest is light and the number still sits within a realistic scoring range.
The result is a consistent edge, backed by a high sample size and strong return on investment.
Orioles vs Padres Best Bet
- Under 8.5 (-115)
