Orioles vs. Yankees Odds, Betting Pick | MLB Prediction for Monday, July 3
Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. Pictured: Yankees pitcher Domingo German.
Orioles vs. Yankees Odds
-114 / -106
-114 / -106
Domingo German will return to Yankee Stadium looking to follow up his perfect game with a strong showing Monday against a much tougher opponent in the Orioles.
After his historic outing, German now owns a 4.54 ERA in 81.1 innings this season.
At 49-33, the Orioles own a four-game lead over the Yankees for the top Wild Card spot in the American League and remain in the thick of the division race.
With Tyler Wells on the mound Monday (3.21 ERA in 92.2 innings), the Orioles are slight favorites on the road.
Can we expect more magic on the mound tonight? Let's dive into the odds and find a best bet for Orioles vs. Yankees on Monday, July 3.
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Offensively, the Orioles quietly took a step backward in June. They hit to a wRC+ of 98, with a wOBA of .311 across 920 plate appearances. Their process at the plate was not great, as they struck out 23.4% of the time and managed the 25th-best BB/K over that span.
Things will not get any easier if Austin Hays misses some time. Hays left Sunday's matchup with a hip contusion and is listed as day-to-day.
Wells has been a very consistent starter for the Orioles and enters this matchup giving up two or fewer earned runs in six straight outings. He put up a 3.03 ERA with a stellar 1.01 WHIP across 29.2 innings in June.
Batters own expected rates below league average versus four of Wells five pitches. His xERA comes in at 3.53, and his xFIP at 4.15. Wells has consistently located his deep arsenal effectively with a 104 Location+ rating in 2023.
Wells has allowed an OBP of only .221 against left-handed batters since 2021, which is the second-best mark in baseball among pitchers who have thrown over 160 innings.
German will look to follow up one of the most out-of-the-blue pitching performances in history with another quality outing Monday. Even with his perfect game included, German put up a 5.67 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in June.
German may never be the pitcher he was prior to the league's crackdown on sticky stuff, but he was due for better results than he put up in the outings prior to his dominant performance against Oakland.
The New York hurler has pitched to a 4.44 xERA in 2023 to go along with a 4.24 xFIP. His expected rates have pretty consistently predicted his actual results throughout his career, and that's the case this season. His Stuff+ rates below average (94), as does his Location+ (98).
Offensively the Yankees have remained a disaster over the last 30 days. They have hit to a wRC+ 80, with a 30th ranked woba of .285 across 899 PA's. Their 30th ranked BABIP of .243 during that time does suggest some positive regression is on the horizon, but it is still hard to make a case that this version of the Yankees offence is even league average.
Orioles vs Yankees Betting Pick
New York's offensive splits have been dreadful for what has become a fairly large sample size. Until Aaron Judge returns to the fold, they are simply a well below-average offensive side.
Wells has offered more steady results over the last month and has been an above-average starter to this point. He's likely to put up another quality start Monday.
German will look to follow up his perfect game against what will likely be a depleted Orioles lineup. By no means am I counting on German to be outright dominant again, but a steady start seems reasonable, which will lead to a Yankees bullpen that has been excellent over the last month.
A total of 8.5 looks a little high, and I see value on under 8.5 down to -120.