Orioles vs Yankees Odds & Prediction: Bet Nestor Cortes & NY Tuesday?

The Yankees have hammered right-handed pitchers in 2024 and will get to face one on Tuesday night in Dean Kremer of the Orioles.

Nestor Cortes will be on the bump for the Yankees, and while hard-throwing pitchers across baseball are hitting the injured list, Cortes is thriving by pitching deep into games — he's gone seven innings in back-to-back starts.

Baltimore has the more electric relief staff compared to its AL East foe. But while New York’s bullpen has been subpar, the Yankees have enough if Cortes can put together another strong outing at Camden Yards.

Let's take a closer look at this matchup in my MLB betting preview and offer an Orioles vs Yankees prediction for Tuesday.

Kremer has been getting favorable results against awful peripherals for over a year now. His Barrel Rate ranks in the fifth percentile with an Average Exit Velocity of almost 89 mph. Aside from not walking anyone, Kremer has not done enough to earn his results. His xERA is almost a full point higher than his ERA, so this does not bode well against a team that can hit like the Yankees.

The Orioles have thrived off lefties, though, but this will be their first appearance against Cortes. They have a 131 wRC+ and 8% walk rate off lefties this season with six bats above a .330 xwOBA. Both James McCann and Adley Rutschman are included in this group, so they may not both be in the lineup. That said, this team fares better when they get a pitcher they can hit hard. Cortes does not permit hard contact often and does not issue free passes.

The relief staff for Baltimore has been elite. This is where the Orioles outpace the Yankees significantly. Their 3.39 xFIP is stellar, and they have multiple arms below a 4.00 xFIP. However, Kremer is not Cortes, which cuts into what would usually be a much larger advantage for Baltimore.

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Cortes has only issued three walks this year, so do not expect many free passes for Baltimore. He has struggled with keeping the ball on the ground, but otherwise, he limits hard contact and has an above-average chase rate. Unlike many other pitchers in baseball, Cortes has already pitched seven-plus innings three times. That is almost unheard of in modern-day baseball and could be the main factor for a Yankees win.

The Yankees have torched righties. They own a 129 wRC+ with a better strikeout and walk rate than the Orioles against lefties. They have seven bats with a .330+ xwOBA off righties. Kremer may not walk many, but given how New York works the count and manufactures walks, the Yankees will force Kremer’s pitch count to accrue quickly. Do not expect him to pitch as deep into this game as Cortes.

The Yankees have a collective relief xFIP of 4.40 with over 100 innings pitched. Cortes will reduce the strain on the relief staff, and they do at least have a few reliable arms who can back him up. Clay Holmes, Josh Maciejewski and Ron Marinaccio are all under a 4.00 xFIP, so those could be the arms to enter the game once Cortes exits.

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New York and Baltimore will be duking it out atop the AL East all season, and getting this series to round out April is awesome.

Cortes should prove why the Yankees rely on him so heavily and be the MVP of the game. Meanwhile, look for the Yankees' bats to take advantage of facing a below-average pitcher for much of the game.

Take New York on the moneyline from -118 to -135.

Pick: Yankees ML (-118 | Play to -135)