MLB Odds, Picks: Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction Today

Padres vs. Diamondbacks Odds

Friday, April 21

9:40 p.m. ET

MLB.TV

Padres Odds
Moneyline	Total	Run Line
-112	9.5 -106 / -114	-1.5 +134

Diamondbacks Odds
Moneyline	Total	Run Line
-104	9.5 -106 / -114	+1.5 -162

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Padres are still trying to scratch and claw to get back to .500, and Friday night's tilt with the Diamondbacks isn't exactly going to be the easiest route to the record.

That's especially the case with Zac Gallen on the hill for Arizona.

Let's dive further into this matchup and make a Padres vs. Diamondbacks prediction and pick.

San Diego Padres

The Padres, simply put, have fallen short of expectations to this point in the season.

Their 92 wRC+ puts them 21st in the big leagues, they have the 12th-worst strikeout rate in the game and the majority of their offense has been driven by Xander Bogaerts.

Outside of his absurd .350/.418/.575 slash line, Juan Soto is hitting just .183. Meanwhile, Manny Machado is hitting only .229.

Home runs have been the occasional saving grace for this team, but on the whole, the Padres have been absolutely lost at the plate.

Now, getting Fernando Tatis, Jr. back from his suspension could certainly change all of that. He made his return on Thursday night and went 0-for-5, but surely that first breakout performance is coming soon.

As for San Diego's starter, Seth Lugo enters this one as sort of a mixed bag. He allowed just two earned runs over his first two starts of the season against Colorado and Atlanta. Then, he was knocked out of his last outing in the fourth inning after allowing three runs on eight hits and a walk against Milwaukee.

On the season, Lugo's expected ERA sits at 4.11, thanks in large part to a 40.4% hard-hit rate and an elevated 7.1% walk rate.

While he's allowed a lot of quality contact, he's induced ground balls at nearly a 58% rate, and his xwOBA on contact is close enough to the league average.

I think there's reason to believe Lugo can be a big-league starter.

Arizona Diamondbacks

As for Lugo's counterpart, he's going in the opposite direction. After a couple of rough starts to begin his season, Gallen has responded in a big way, spinning 13 consecutive shutout innings with 18 strikeouts.

He's yielded just six baserunners in all, and while those starts came against the Brewers and Marlins, they're still impressive nonetheless.

Gallen is rocking a 2.77 xERA entering play on Friday with a career-best 29.5% strikeout rate to this point. His ground ball rate is down, but his expected batting average remains a spicy .218.

It would appear there's nothing wrong with Gallen, contrary to what some may have worried about a couple of weeks ago.

This offense isn't too bad, either. The Snakes rank 12th in Isolated Power with a low 20.4% strikeout rate.

Arizona hasn't walked much, and with that, its wRC+ isn't as high as you might think. However, this team is a spectacular sixth in hard-hit balls per swing, so there's plenty of quality, efficient contact being made.

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Padres vs. Diamondbacks Betting Pick

While the Diamondbacks have hit better than you might have expected, I don't think it's enough for me to get behind them in a spot against Lugo, who has impressed me this season in his move back to the starting rotation.

Lugo's numbers would indicate he's been a perfectly solid pitcher, and on the flip side, there are certainly reasons to hate this situation for the Padres' offense.

San Diego is still lost at the plate and is facing a solid starter in Gallen, who's allowed just three barrels all season.

I expect Gallen to keep on rolling and continue to keep the Padres' bats at bay, even with Tatis back.

Pick: Under 9.5 (-120)

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