Padres vs Diamondbacks Odds, Pick & Prediction | MLB Betting Preview (5/4)

The latest Padres vs Diamondbacks odds for Saturday's contest at Chase Field have the Diamondbacks installed as -120 favorites on the moneyline, with an over/under of 8.5 (-118o /-102u). For my Padres vs Diamondbacks prediction, I will be looking at the total.

Let's dive into my MLB betting preview and get into my Padres vs Diamondbacks pick for Saturday, May 4.

Editor's Note: This Padres vs Diamondbacks preview was written before San Diego acquired second baseman and two-time batting champion Luis Arraez from the Marlins. Arraez is in the lineup for the Padres, leading off as the team's designated hitter.

Right-hander Michael King gets the ball for San Diego, and he should be a good fade candidate. Through seven appearances on the mound this season, King is 2-3 with a 5.00 ERA and 1.47 WHIP.

His underlying metrics are even worse, ranking in the fifth percentile in pitching run value, 19th percentile in xERA and 12th percentile in Barrel%. King has now allowed six or more runs in back-to-back starts, with 11 or more total runs scored in each outing.

Even if King gets chased early, we also shouldn't have too much faith in a Padres bullpen that ranks in the bottom half of the league in ERA and xFIP. On the other hand, this pitching staff could get plenty of run support, as San Diego ranks in the top 10 of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP and home runs.

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That offensive success is likely to continue against right-hander Brandon Pfaadt, who is slated to take the mound for Arizona. Like King, Pfaadt has not had his best stuff to start the campaign.

Through six starts, the right-hander is 1-1 with a 4.63 ERA. His analytics suggest we should hold off on positive regression expectations, given he ranks in the 14th percentile in pitching run value.

Following Pfaadt is a relief staff that ranks in the bottom 10 of the league in ERA, FIP and xFIP. However, just like San Diego's, Arizona's pitching staff is likely to get plenty of run support considering this team ranks in the top 10 in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP and OPS.

That offensive success is likely to continue against King, a pitcher whom this current lineup boasts a .294 xBA, .539 xSLG and .384 xwOBA against through 25 career plate appearances.

These are two of the strongest offenses in baseball thus far, and there is no reason to believe they can't combine for at least nine total runs. At the same time, both bullpens have struggled while both starting pitchers carry an ERA north of 4.62.

My only concern with the Over in this contest is that the roof will be closed, which has traditionally led to a slight dip in both run production and OPS. However, these are just very slight dips and I don't think it will overpower all of the aforementioned variables.

Pick: Over 9 (-102 at DraftKings)