MLB Playoffs Odds, Picks, Best Bets for NLDS Game 2 Padres vs Dodgers
Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images. Pictured: A Dodgers fan.
- NL West rivals meet tonight in Los Angeles for NLDS Game 2.
- Los Angeles will send Clayton Kershaw to the mound and San Diego will counter with Yu Darvish.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of our best bets from tonight's game.
Padres vs. Dodgers Game 2 Odds
|Time||8:37 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The pitching matchup in Game 2 is excellent, with Yu Darvish taking the mound for San Diego against LA's future Hall of Famer, Clayton Kershaw.
Here are our three best bets from Game 2 of the NLDS between the Padres and Dodgers.
MLB Odds & Picks
Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Odds via FanDuel
Charlie DiSturco: Freddie Freeman finds himself competing in October once again, and he draws a familiar face in Yu Darvish.
Across 22 at-bats against Darvish, Freeman has seven hits — two home runs — and a double. He has a 1.036 OPS and three RBI as well.
Despite Darvish's strong start in the Wild Card Round against the Mets, he flirted with danger throughout. Against the Dodgers' offense — No. 1 in wRC+ against right-handed pitching — I don't expect a similar performance.
Darvish has a concerning 9% barrel rate — a career worst — and ranks in the bottom 20 percent of MLB pitchers. That bodes well for Freeman, who hits .338 and has a .956 OPS against right-handed pitching.
Sandwiched between Trea Turner and Will Smith in the lineup, Freeman can't be pitched around. He has been the best Dodgers hitter over the last 30 days, slugging .516 with a 175 wRC+ in 25 games.
Freeman also ranks in the 98th percentile of all hitters in xSLG and xBA. And of his 199 hits this season, 70 have gone for extra bases.
I like Freeman’s chances at a bounce-back game on Wednesday night in a favorable matchup against Darvish.
Dodgers First Five Innings -184
Odds via FanDuel
Sean Zerillo: Yu Darvish (3.54 xERA, 3.58 xFIP, 3.39 SIERA) has primarily been enigmatic throughout his MLB career but provided consistency throughout the 2022 campaign, notching a league-leading 26 quality starts (tied with Framber Valdez) before adding another in San Diego’s Game 1 victory against the Mets (7 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 4 K).
Darvish recorded three quality starts in four outings against the Dodgers this season (25 IP, 18 H, 7 R, 5 BB, 31 K) and has allowed a career .646 OPS in 202 plate appearances against current Dodgers players.
Clayton Kershaw (2.51 xERA, 2.83 xFIP, 2.98 SIERA) only faced the Padres twice this season (12 IP, 8 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 11 K) but owns stellar career numbers against the opposing roster (.547 OPS allowed in 208 plate appearances).
Darvish keeps the Dodgers in their superior split. As a reminder, Los Angeles had the top-ranked offense against right-handed pitching this season (122 wrC+), compared to the No. 8 offense against lefties (113). However, both numbers declined after the trade deadline (120 and 104).
Although the right-hander posted superior numbers against lefties (3.12 xFIP) compared to righties (4.15 xFIP) in 2022, his career splits and recent seasons align more closely with expectations. And Darvish only modified his pitch mix slightly against lefties this season, reducing his slider usage in favor of more four-seamers and cutters.
On a per-pitch basis, the Dodgers were the best offense against fastballs (four-seamers, sinkers, and cutters) this season. And they ranked sixth against sliders.
Kershaw has been the same pitcher for the past five years, deploying either his fastball or slider 80% of the time while mixing in his slow curve and a rare changeup.
Even with diminished fastball velocity, Kershaw has remained an extremely effective starting pitcher, and has shown relatively neutral splits throughout his career.
And the Padres had relatively neutral splits throughout the season — both before and after the trade deadline — when they added Juan Soto, Josh Bell and lefty-killer Brandon Drury to their offensive mix.
San Diego struggled against the fastball all season long (ranking as a bottom-10 offense in both halves) but finished fourth against sliders and 12th against curveballs; those rankings roughly interchanged with their post-deadline lineup.
You’d assume they’ll have an easier time sitting on those breaking balls against Kershaw and his low 90s fastball, but he’s dominated their offense over a decent enough sample that you have to remain skeptical.
Still, I don’t mind the matchup for the Padres’ offense on paper.
I don’t see value on either side of the Game 2 moneyline. I would set my full-game price targets around -174 for the Dodgers or +207 for the Padres.
For the F5 line, I would move those targets closer to -188 for the Dodgers and +225 for the Padres; the projected difference between Darvish and Kershaw is more significant than the difference between these two bullpens.
Regarding the total, I lean toward the Under 7.5 at -107 or better (projected 7.04) or an F5 Under 4 (to +101).
Under 7 (+105)
Odds via PointsBet
Doug Ziefel: Being divisional rivals, Clayton Kershaw has seen a lot of this Padres club over the years and has amassed 200 plate appearances combined. Overall, they have hit just .180 and have a 27 percent strikeout rate. In addition to those poor numbers, their quality of contact has not been great, and they are due for very little, if any, positive regression in this matchup. San Diego’s xBA against Kershaw is .196.
Some notable bats to point out in that sample size are Machado, who is 9-for-35 with three home runs. Then there is Juan Soto, who is 1-for-8 in his career with three strikeouts. Lastly, Bell has yet to get a hit off Kershaw in five career matchups and likely won’t start tonight again.
If Kershaw is on tonight, it could be a very long night for the Padres.
The Dodgers saw Darvish four times this season, and in three of those outings, he was excellent as he threw quality starts and struck out at least seven in each of them. However, they did get to him on July 2nd as he allowed five earned runs, but he still went six innings and struck out 10 batters.
Overall, Darvish is much like his counterpart in that he has a long track record of success against this lineup. In 182 combined at-bats, the Dodgers have hit just .192 and have a staggering 31.6 percent strikeout rate. Now, a few guys have had some success, and those men are Trea Turner and Freddie Freeman, but aside from them, there is not much upside shown in the numbers against Darvish.