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Padres vs Phillies Pick, Prediction, Odds, for NLCS Game 3

Padres vs Phillies Pick, Prediction, Odds, for NLCS Game 3 article feature image

Matt Thomas/San Diego Padres/Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Musgrove

  • The Padres are short favorites tonight in Game 3 of the NLCS against the Phillies.
  • San Diego will send Joe Musgrove to the mound, while Philadelphia will counter with Ranger Suarez.
  • Continue reading for how our staff is betting this pivotal Game 3 tonight in Philadelphia.

Padres vs. Phillies Game 3 Odds

Padres Odds-115
Phillies Odds-105
Over/Under7.5 (-105/-115)
Time7:37 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Padres staged a wild comeback in Game 2 of the NLCS and now travel to Philadelphia with the series tied at 1. Citizens Bank Park is going to be rocking for Game 3, but will the home crowd be enough to lift the Phillies to victory?

Our analysts have dug into this matchup and have offered up a couple of plays on the Padres. Here are our best bets for Game 3 of the NLCS.

MLB Odds & Picks

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Padres First 5 Innings Moneyline (-115)
Joe Musgrove o5.5 Ks (-118)

Padres First 5 Innings Moneyline (-115)

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Jules Posner:
Joe Musgrove is starting to establish himself as a big game pitcher. Although he didn't factor into the decision against the Dodgers in the NLDS, he still has had to take on two of the best offenses in the game to start his postseason.

Ranger Suarez was shaky in his first postseason start (NLDS Game 1). He now gets the ball at home, where he has posted almost decent numbers, but he'll be taking on an offense that has handled lefties well on the road this season.

The Phillies have been one of the best offenses at home against right handers down the stretch, but Musgrove's postseason performances should not be discounted. The true edge in this match up lies on the mound.

Suarez struggled with command and the Padres showed what they can do with extra base runners in Game 2. The Phillies had one of the most flukey rallies in Game 2 and may not have that same BABIP luck in Game 3.

The Padres do have an edge in the bullpen and the starting pitching match up, but their F5 moneyline sits at -115, which is an excellent value. Their F5 runline is also in solid plus money. Although the Phillies' lineup has been gritty (no pun intended), their pitching situation seems very fade-able heading into Game 3.

Play it safe and take the F5 moneyline to -140.

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Joe Musgrove o5.5 Ks (-118)

Odds courtesy of BetRivers

DJ James: Joe Musgrove has mowed down hitters this postseason and will get another opportunity in Friday’s matchup between the San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies. Musgrove has thrown at least six innings in both postseason appearances and struck out at least five hitters in each of those outings.

In addition, the Phillies have five starting position players with at least seven strikeouts in the playoffs. From August 1 to the end of the regular season, Philadelphia only held a 7.7% walk rate.

Musgrove’s walk rate is 5.7% and he strikes out roughly 25% of batters. In addition, he ranks in the 74th percentile in chase rate. The Phillies ranked fourth and chased nearly 31% of the time. If they are not going to be taking walks, there is a strong chance Musgrove handles the Phillies' lineup with ease, at least through five innings.

Lastly, despite having a worse second half (3.62 ERA vs. 2.42 ERA in the first half), Musgrove had 82 strikeouts over 77 innings.

Musgrove doesn't give up much hard contact and will frustrate hitters the second and third time through the order as the Phillies chase after bad pitches.

Take Musgrove’s strikeout total over 5.5 (-118), and play to 6 (-130).

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