“Payoff Pitch” | MLB Best Bets, Picks for Phillies vs Cardinals, Rays vs Angels (April 8)
(Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images) Pictured: Zach Eflin
There on 13 MLB games on the slate Monday night, and our baseball betting experts broke down their MLB best bets on the latest edition of the "Payoff Pitch Podcast."
Their MLB best bets tonight, as well as the latest episode of the podcast are below.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 7:45 p.m. | Phillies F5 ML (+100) | |
| 9:38 p.m. | Rays ML (-145) |
Phillies F5 ML (+100) at Cardinals
7:45 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV
By Sean Zerillo
Spencer Turnbull was very impressive in his first start this season. He popped a 112 stuff+. He was at 104 before his Tommy John Surgery and was around 98 after his return last season. His fastball velocity was a tad down in that game from his career average, but his secondary stuff is popping off the page. He has also clearly had a change in philosophy as his fastball usage went from over 60% in his career to under 50% in that start.
I am high on Turnbull right now, so we’ll see how he progresses this season. On the other hand, I don’t really like Miles Mikolas. He is a bad stuff, good command guy. His projections heading into this season were relatively the same to Turnbull’s, but his expected ERA last season was 6.12 and his expected FIP was also high.
The Phillies have the better lineup and the better defense, so I'd bet them in the first five innings up to -110.
Rays ML (-145) at Angels
9:38 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV
I am continuing to buy Zach Eflin. This line has moved up to -145. I'm still very high on Eflin and I know his numbers to date aren’t great, but it is really just one bad inning that has done him in thus far. He cruised in his first five innings in Toronto, but was mistakenly sent out for the sixth. Then, against the Rangers, he looked great through 6 1/3 innings.
He is facing an Angels offense that isn't good and I feel we'll see vintage Eflin. I think the books are overvaluing Tyler Anderson, who looked great in seven shutout innings against the Marlins. To reiterate, he faced the Marlins. I really like the Rays in this spot and I back them all the way to -160.
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