The Houston Astros host the Philadelphia Phillies on June 24, 2025. First pitch from Daikin Park is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on NBCS-PH.
Read our Phillies vs Astros prediction and MLB pick below.
My Phillies vs Astros Prediction
- Phillies vs Astros Picks: Under 7 (+100, FanDuel | Play to -105)
My Phillies vs Astros best bet is on the Under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Astros Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 7.5 -120 / -100 | +120 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 7.5 -120 / -100 | -145 |
Phillies vs Astros Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Ranger Suárez (PHI) | Stat | LHP Framber Valdez (HOU) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | W-L | 8-4 |
| 1.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.4 |
| 2.20 / 2.59 | ERA / xERA | 3.09 / 3.65 |
| 2.72 / 3.37 | FIP / xFIP | 2.98 / 3.04 |
| 1.06 | WHIP | 1.13 |
| 16.6% | K-BB% | 17.1% |
| 54.3% | GB% | 60.6% |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 107 |
| 114 | Location+ | 103 |
Tony Sartori’s Phillies vs Astros Preview
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
Philadelphia boasts arguably the deepest rotation in the National League, and one of its hottest arms has been Ranger Suárez.
He’s allowed two or fewer runs in each of his past six starts, posting a 4-1 record with a 0.91 ERA and 1.03 WHIP during the stretch. Suárez has been dominant, going six or more innings in each of those outings. This output has helped eliminate the Phillies’ biggest weakness: their bullpen.
Subsequently, there have been seven or fewer total runs scored in five of those six games.
Suárez’s underlying metrics suggest that this dominance will continue. Entering this matchup, the southpaw ranks in the 93rd percentile or higher among qualified pitchers in expected ERA (xERA), average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Analytically speaking, Suárez has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season.
Houston Astros Betting Preview
The bad news for Houston is that it may struggle to put up runs against the surging Suárez.
The good news is that it may be able to keep up in a pitching duel, as left-hander Framber Valdez takes the mound.
Like Suárez, Valdez enters this contest in dominant form. The southpaw has allowed two or fewer runs in each of his past five starts, posting a spotless 5-0 record with a 2.18 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.
There were seven or fewer total runs scored in three of those five outings.
Similarly, Valdez’s underlying metrics suggest that this success will continue. He ranks in the top half of the league among qualified pitchers in xERA, expected batting average (xBA), strikeout rate and barrel rate.
Following Valdez is one of the league's best bullpens. This season, the Astros’ relief corps ranks in the top four in ERA, fielding independent pitching (FIP), expected FIP (xFIP) and wins above replacement (WAR).
Phillies vs Astros Prediction, Betting Analysis
The primary concerns with backing the over in this contest are Philadelphia’s bullpen and the lineups of both teams.
However, Suárez has been working deep into games while dominating the opposition, which helps nullify that concern.
Meanwhile, Valdez has dominated the Phillies throughout his career. He is 3-1 against them through four meetings, with a 1.85 ERA and 0.90 WHIP.
Pick: Under 7 (+100, FanDuel | Play to -105)
Moneyline
I lean toward Houston, but I don't want to fade Suarez.
Run Line (Spread)
I also like Houston to cover, but I'm staying away for the same reason listed above.
Over/Under
As mentioned, I'm betting under 7.
