The Milwaukee Brewers host the Philadelphia Phillies on September 4, 2025. First pitch from American Family Field is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FDSWI.
Find my MLB betting preview and Phillies vs Brewers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Phillies vs Brewers Prediction
- Phillies vs Brewers picks: Phillies ML (+105 | Play to -110)
My Phillies vs Brewers best bet is on Philadelphia ML. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Brewers Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 8 100o / -120u | +110 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +165 | 8 100o / -120u | -130 |
Phillies vs Brewers Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Ranger Suarez (PHI) | Stat | RHP Freddy Peralta (MIL) |
|---|---|---|
| 10-6 | W-L | 16-5 |
| 3.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.2 |
| 3.02/3.06 | ERA / xERA | 2.58/3.41 |
| 3.06/3.67 | FIP / xFIP | 3.61/4.00 |
| 1.17 | WHIP | 1.07 |
| 4.1 | K-BB% | 2.9 |
| 45.9 | GB% | 37.7 |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 105 |
| 123 | Location+ | 106 |
Sean Paul’s Phillies vs Brewers Preview
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
Ranger Suarez is on the shortlist of the most underrated pitchers in baseball.
He’s not flashy, but his 3.02 ERA, 3.06 xERA, and 3.06 FIP speak for themselves. He’s the type of pitcher who’ll always have great underlying numbers, ranking in the 99th percentile in walk rate while allowing just 0.69 HR/9.
Suarez puts the fate of the game in his own hands more often than not.
August wasn’t the best month for Suarez, posting a 4.10 ERA across six outings. He had a pair of five-or-more run outings versus the Orioles and Reds that derailed his overall numbers.
Due to his pitching style, he can be the recipient of poor BABIP luck, which is something to note. Suarez ranks in the 98th percentile in average exit velocity allowed. Nobody is better at generating weak contact than Suarez, so we’ll see if the contact-heavy Brewers roll into some weak grounders.
The Phillies' offense has been on fire lately. Since August 15th, they have the fourth-best wRC+ (133). They’ve done exceptionally well in two categories — strikeouts and home runs. They rank sixth with 28 home runs and a 19.9% strikeout rate.
Ten Phillies hitters have a wRC+ of 100 or better in that nearly three-week span. That's telling about how good the Phillies' lineup is and how deep it is.
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview
The Brewers still have the best record in baseball by a clear margin. However, their recent 5-5 stretch has proven they're just a mere mortal, like every other team.
Nobody pitched better in August than Milwaukee ace Freddy Peralta. He posted a dazzling 0.32 ERA in 28 innings, en route to the NL pitcher of the month. Peralta allowed just 11 hits, but walked 12 batters in five August starts.
August wasn't a fluke month for Peralta, as he boasts a 2.58 ERA, a 3.41 xERA, and a 3.61 FIP. He's developed into the top of the rotation arm the Brewers desperately needed to be a rotation anchor.
The walks are always the swing factor in Peralta's outings. For the year, Peralta is walking 3.40 BB/9, but he's stranding 85% of baserunners. While I don't think stranding 85% is sustainable, it's been sustainable through 28 outings for Peralta. Peralta could dominate in any outing. On the same token, the way he loses the zone can lead to a shocking implosion.
The Brewers' offense is a total anomaly. Since August 15th, Milwaukee ranks 7th in MLB with a 114 wRC+. What makes the Brewers' offense so unique is how they achieve a top-10 wRC+ marker. In that span, they have the 11th-highest groundball rate and the 8th-lowest hard-hit rate. Both of those factors play directly into Suarez's hands.
Milwaukee needs those grounders to find holes or find a way to get on base and use its elite speed to generate offense. I'm just not sure that's very likely against Suarez. The Brewers will need the BABIP luck in their favor.
Phillies vs Brewers Prediction, Betting Analysis
I have to back the Phillies here.
It's hard to fade Peralta, but he's facing one of the hottest offenses in MLB — one that already stole one game in Milwaukee.
They have a patient approach that could take Peralta out of the contest earlier than he'd hope and test a highly questionable bullpen that's missing closer Trevor Megill.
I also think Suarez can slow down this overachieving Brewers offense. If those never-ending amounts of groundballs are softly hit, then Suarez could cruise.
Pick: Phillies ML (+105 | Play to -110)
Phillies vs Brewers Betting Trends
