Phillies vs Diamondbacks NLCS Game 5 MLB Playoffs Odds, Pick, Prediction

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Zack Wheeler remains one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball and he's added to his postseason resume this year. During the regular season, he held a 3.61 ERA against a 3.21 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity was 86.9 mph with a Barrel Rate of 5.1% and a Hard-Hit Rate of 36.4%. He only walks 5% of hitters while striking out nearly 27%.

In the playoffs, he has somehow been even better with only one walk to 26 strikeouts. He has allowed a combined 11 hits over 19 innings and should show a similar performance as the last one against Arizona. 

The Phillies have some astounding power throughout their batting order. From August 1 to the end of the regular season, they had a 119 wRC+ and an .822 OPS off of righties. They walked 8.9% of the time with a 22.8% strikeout rate. They have six batters above a 100 wRC+ in the postseason, but only four with a .320 OBP or better. Zac Gallen may let up some hard contact, but he doesn't walk many batters and playing at home will give him a boost against this dangerous lineup. 

The Phillies' bullpen has been a major concern, especially with Craig Kimbrel’s control issues. They have four arms below a 4.00 xFIP, but in total, their ERA is 1.63 against a 4.70 xFIP. In addition, they are walking 11.8% of hitters, while striking out 20.2%.

That said, Wheeler will likely go at least six innings in this game. Philly will probably only have to throw the reliable arms to finish this game.

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Gallen was the Diamondbacks' ace this season and in the NL Cy Young conversation for much of the year. He finish with a 3.47 ERA against a 4.18 xERA, and that difference comes down to the fact that he allowed a lot of hard contact; an Average Exit Velocity of 91.5 mph, Barrel Rate of 9.5% and Hard-Hit Rate of 46.2%. He is able to mask over that hard contact more often than not with a solid 26% strikeout rate and miniscule 5.6% walk rate. 

The D'backs had an 86 wRC+ and .684 OPS from August 1 to the end of the regular season off of righties. They also had a 21.5% strikeout rate and 9.2% walk rate. Keep in mind, Wheeler rarely walks anyone, so this walk rate could only really come into play against the Phillies' bullpen in limited innings in this game.

In the playoffs, the D-Backs have four bats above a 100 wRC+ and three above a .320 OBP. The top of the order, like Corbin Carroll, Christian Walker and Ketel Marte, has almost solely been responsible for the offensive production. 

Arizona has some problems with the bullpen, but grades out comparably to the Phillies. Even with Gallen’s struggles in Game 1, he managed to pitch five innings. With limited walks, he can keep the Phillies at bay for, at least, another five.

Arizona has a collective 4.23 xFIP in the playoffs with a 21.8% strikeout rate and 12.1% walk rate. Kevin Ginkel and Ryan Thompson have sub-3.00 xFIPs, and Paul Sewald was strong all season. They should be fine on the back of a solid Gallen start.

Wheeler and Gallen were two of the top pitchers in the National League this season, and even if Gallen gives up hard contact, he should be in better shape at home.

Arizona and Philly have just enough behind their two starters to get the job done and hit this under.

I would bet the under down to 7.5.

Pick: Under 8 (-115)