Phillies vs Guardians Odds, Pick, Prediction | How to Bet Philadelphia and Bryson Stott
Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Bryson Stott (Phillies)
Phillies vs. Guardians Odds
-115 / -105
-115 / -105
The Philadelphia Phillies look to snap a three-game losing streak on Saturday and keep pace in the hotly contested NL Wild Card race. They're -124 favorites on the moneyline at Progressive Field with Zack Wheeler (4.04 ERA, 111 IP) taking on Tanner Bibee (3.32 ERA, 76 IP) of the Cleveland Guardians.
Bibee's surprisingly strong rookie campaign has been key for the Guardians, who sit just two games back of the Minnesota Twins in the AL Central entering Saturday. The rookie right-hander has been particularly stout of late with an ERA of 1.62 in July.
Adjusted for the inflated league average this season, Wheeler's 4.04 ERA is the worst mark since his rookie campaign in 2023. His recent results have been particularly shaky; in the month of July, he owns an ERA of 5.00 after a dominant stretch to finish June.
However, his xwOBA has remained steady over the last 100 plate appearances, and aside from allowing a high number of homers, nothing about his form has been overly concerning.
Wheeler's xERA (3.24) is elite among starters with over 100 innings pitched. His walk rate is actually better than last season, even while his strikeout rate has held strong at 26.9%. Wheeler's Stuff+ rating of 110 and his Location+ rating of 106 are both quality numbers.
All of that makes the case that Wheeler is still a dominant pitcher, and it seems likely that he'll manage a sub-3.5 ERA the rest of the way.
Philadelphia's offense has hit to a wRC+ of 99 versus right-handed pitching this season.
Bryson Stott's .451 SLG against righties has been a pleasant surprise. He's working on a ridiculous month of July, with an OPS of 1.024 and a .593 SLG rate.
Few would have counted on this level of play from Bibee in his first campaign, but it does seem likely that he should maintain better than average results in the season's final third.
Bibee has pitched to an xERA of 3.39, with an xFIP of 4.35. He owns a Stuff+ rating of 98, which comes with three worse than average pitches. However, he has elite marks on his slider. He's located at a near league-average rate, with a Location+ average of 98.
Over his last four outings, Bibee owns a 1.39 ERA and has allowed a SLG rate of just .230.
Little about his process suggests that level of dominance should continue though, and Saturday could potentially be a sell-high spot on a rookie achieving better than expected results.
Phillies vs. Guardians Betting Pick
Wheeler is quietly still providing a notable pitching edge over Bibee, even if that hasn't been entirely reflected to this point. Wheeler has proven himself year in and out with stellar results, and with how his arsenal is currently rating, I do think expected positive regression will come.
Offensively, the Phillies should be step for step with the Guardians the rest of the way.
Factoring in Cleveland's fielding edge and bullpen advantage, I still think the Phillies deserve to be a bigger favorite in this matchup.
In particular, Stott could do some damage if the Phillies break through with some offense off of Bibee. At a price of +135, I'm definitely happy to take a shot on him continuing his heater with two more total bases.
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