Phillies vs. Mets MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Third Time a Charm for Philadelphia & Wheeler? (Sunday, August 14)

Phillies vs. Mets MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Third Time a Charm for Philadelphia & Wheeler? (Sunday, August 14) article feature image

Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images

Phillies vs. Mets Odds

Phillies Odds+118
Mets Odds-138
Over/Under7 (-124/+102)
Time1:40 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Phillies and Mets have each won eight of their last 10 games, so these are two teams currently in playoff positioning that also happen to be firing on all cylinders right now.

Philadelphia has experienced a little bit of what the Mets did last year. New York acquired a handful of new players two offseasons ago in a similar fashion, and it struggled and dealt with injuries before failing to make the playoffs.

Philadelphia currently holds one of the three wild card spots in the National League, but it's dealt with injuries and it isn't enjoying the season it envisioned before the year.

The Mets lead the Phillies by 10 games in the loss column. Will Philadelphia be able to pull the upset and draw closer?

How Do Phillies Match Up With Chris Bassitt?

The Phillies' offense is still missing Bryce Harper, but their young third baseman has been one of the best hitters in the National League for over a month now.

Since the beginning of July, Alec Bohm is hitting .353/.389/.517 with four home runs, five doubles, a triple and 24 RBI.

The main issue for the Phillies' offense here will be Mets starter Chris Bassitt, who's been exceptional this season. Since allowing seven earned runs on June 8, Bassitt has completed at least six innings and allowed three earned runs or less in every start.

That's nine quality starts in a row for Bassitt, who has a 2.19 ERA in that span.

Bassitt has already faced the Phillies once this year and beat them back in May.

The Mets have been great at home this year, with a 39-19 record. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is 11th in all of baseball, averaging 4.53 runs per game on the road.

Mets to Have Difficult Time vs. Zack Wheeler?

The Mets will face Phillies starter Zack Wheeler. Wheeler's 2.63 ERA this season is actually lower than his 2.78 ERA last year — when he finished second in the Cy Young award voting. Also, his xFIP is nearly a run higher at 3.62 this season.

The Mets are sixth in all of baseball, averaging 4.81 runs per game at home.

Wheeler has a 3.88 ERA on the road compared to a 1.57 ERA at home. He's faced the Mets twice already this season, and the Phillies have lost both games, though one of them was a quality start for Wheeler.

The Phillies' starter doesn't allow a ton of power, but the Mets have a lot of power in their lineup, as Pete Alonso, Daniel Vogelbach and Tyler Naquin each have ISOs above .250 against right-handed pitching this season.

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Phillies-Mets Pick

While the Phillies have lost to the Mets with Wheeler on the mound twice in two tries already this season, I believe that the third time will be the charm.

There's value on the Phillies moneyline at +115, and I would bet it down to +110.

Bassitt has pitched well lately, but Wheeler is a formidable opponent. The Mets have been great at home, but this game carries more weight for Philadelphia. The Phillies still have work to do to make sure they hang onto their wild card spot, while the Mets have a big 10-game lead in the division.

I took the Phillies at +115 on DraftKings.

Pick: Phillies ML +115

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