Pirates vs Nationals Prediction | MLB Odds, Picks Today (Thursday, April 4)

Here's everything you need to know about Pirates vs Nationals on Thursday, April 4 — including odds and a prediction.

Pirates vs Nationals odds have Pittsburgh as a -130 favorite while the over/under is set at 8.5. Washington will hand the ball to right-hander Josiah Gray, who I'm looking to fade.

Let's dive into why I am fading Gray as I make a Pirates vs Nationals prediction.

However, before diving into Gray, let's first look at left-hander Martin Perez, who gets the nod for Pittsburgh on Thursday. Perez was solid in his first start this season, allowing just one run over four innings.

Following Perez is a bullpen that has gotten off to a strong start this season, ranking in the top six of the league in ERA, FIP and xFIP. This group should also get plenty of run support as the Pirates have been strong at the plate.

Pittsburgh ranks in the top seven in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG and OPS. It's also worth noting that the Pirates outrank Washington in each of those categories.

With this dominating start both on the mound and at the plate, it's not shocking that Pittsburgh is 5-1 and that four of those wins came by at least two runs.

Now, back to Gray and why he should be a good fade candidate in this matchup. First, he got drilled in his first start of the campaign, allowing seven runs on eight hits over four innings.

That poor start is just a continuation of Gray's troubled career. Through four seasons, he is 17-26 with a 4.76 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP.

His underlying metrics last year suggest that positive regression is unlikely coming to save Gray. In 2023, he ranked in the 34th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, Chase%, K%, BB% and Barrel%.

Those struggles are likely to continue against Pittsburgh, a team Gray possesses a 4.15 ERA against through three career starts. The Pirates won two of those games, both by multiple runs.

There isn't much to like about Washington in this spot. Perez is better than Gray and both Pittsburgh's bullpen and lineup are playing better than Washington's.

Washington took the first game of this series, but I now want to sell high on the inferior team.

Pick: Pirates -1.5 (+138 at bet365 | Play to +120)