The Chicago Cubs host the Pittsburgh Pirates on April 11, 2026. First pitch from Wrigley Field is scheduled for 2:20 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SportsNet PT.
The Cubs are favored by -144 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Pirates are +122 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 6.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Pirates vs Cubs prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Pirates vs Cubs Prediction
- Pirates vs Cubs Pick: Under 6.5 (+100 or Better)
My Pirates vs Cubs best bet is on the Under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Cubs Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 6.5 -122o / -100u | +122 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +164 | 6.5 -122o / -100u | -144 |
- Pirates vs Cubs spread: Cubs -1.5 (+164), Pirates +1.5 (-200)
- Pirates vs Cubs over/under: 6.5 (-122o / -100u)
- Pirates vs Cubs moneyline: Pirates +122, Cubs -144
Pirates vs Cubs Pitchers
| Braxton Ashcraft (RHP) | Stat | Edward Cabrera (RHP) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | W-L | 1-0 |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 2.25 / 2.41 | ERA / xERA | 0.00 / 2.39 |
| 2.32 / 3.57 | FIP / xFIP | 3.15 / 4.22 |
| 1.00 | WHIP | 0.69 |
| 15.2% | K-BB% | 7.3% |
| 48.4% | GB% | 48% |
| 99 | Stuff+ | 92 |
| 95 | Location+ | 100 |
Pirates vs Cubs MLB Betting Preview
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams.
The Series Unders Off Low-Scoring Games system focuses on regular-season MLB matchups in which both teams are entering the second or later game of a series after producing minimal offense in their previous game.
When teams come off one- or two-game streaks of low scoring, particularly early to mid-series, the market can overcorrect or undervalue continued offensive stagnation.
This model anticipates that trend to persist, betting on the under when recent results and situational rhythm point to a slow-paced, low-output environment.
Pirates vs Cubs Picks
I bet the Under 6.5 in Thursday's game between these two, primarily because of the awful hitting weather.
We're getting pitcher-friendly weather again on Friday, with winds blowing in from right field (at MLB's most wind-receptive park) and temperatures in the high-30s at first pitch.
As a result, BallParkPal projects a -34% run factor behind a -48% home run factor, lowering his projected total by nearly three runs compared to a weather-neutral day.
The only thing different from Thursday is that this starting pitching battle is better.
Through two starts, Braxton Ashcraft has earned run indicators in the low-to-mid twos behind an elite batted-ball profile.
Through the same number of starts, Edward Cabrera has yet to allow a run, with a 2.39 Expected ERA behind a career-high swinging-strike rate (13%).
I couldn't be happier to bet another Under in these conditions, especially with these two pitchers on the mound. Thursday's game finished 2-0, and I could see a similar result on Friday.
Pick: Under 6.5 (+100 or Better)
