The Chicago Cubs host the Pittsburgh Pirates on August 16, 2025. First pitch from Wrigley Field is scheduled for 2:20 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on Fox Sports 1.
Find my MLB betting preview and Pirates vs Cubs prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Pirates vs Cubs Prediction
- Pirates vs Cubs pick: Cubs -1.5 (-108 | Play to -115)
My Pirates vs Cubs best bet is on Chicago to cover the spread. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Cubs Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -105 | 9 -115o / -105u | +190 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -115 | 9 -115o / -105u | -235 |
Pirates vs Cubs Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Mike Burrows (PIT) | Stat | LHP Shota Imanaga (CHC) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | W-L | 8-5 |
| 0.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.1 |
| 4.66 / 4.19 | ERA / xERA | 3.19 / 3.52 |
| 4.66 / 3.94 | FIP / xFIP | 4.33 / 4.45 |
| 1.26 | WHIP | 0.97 |
| 15.3% | K-BB% | 16.4% |
| 41.3% | GB% | 28.9% |
| 91 | Stuff+ | 92 |
| 99 | Location+ | 112 |
Tony Sartori’s Pirates vs Cubs Preview
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview: Bad News All Around
Mike Burrows’ first full season in MLB has gone poorly. Through 15 appearances on the mound, Burrows is 1-4 with a 4.66 ERA and 1.26 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are equally poor. Entering this matchup, Burrows ranks in the bottom half of the league in expected ERA (xERA), average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Following Burrows is a fade-worthy bullpen. This season, Pittsburgh’s relief corps ranks in the bottom half of the league in ERA and expected FIP (xFIP).
To make matters worse, this pitching staff is unlikely to receive much run support. Arguably the worst lineup in baseball, the Pirates rank last in runs per game, slugging percentage, OPS and home runs.
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview: Imanaga and Bullpen Are Impressive
That lack of success at the plate is likely to continue against Shota Imanaga. Through 48 combined plate appearances against Imanaga, the current Pittsburgh roster has a .239 batting average, a .261 slugging percentage and a .239 weighted on-base average (wOBA).
Meanwhile, Imanaga looks to build upon his brilliant 2024 rookie campaign. Through 17 starts this season, the southpaw is 8-5 with a 3.19 ERA and 0.97 WHIP.
His analytics are equally impressive. Entering this matchup, Imanaga ranks in the top half of the league in xERA, expected batting average (xBA), walk rate and hard-hit rate.
Following Imanaga is a trustworthy relief corps. This season, the Cubs’ bullpen ranks in the top half of the league in ERA.
Pirates vs Cubs Prediction, Betting Analysis
Not only does Chicago hold a clear pitching advantage, but the hitting gap is even wider. The Cubs outrank the Pirates in every offensive category.
With the stronger pitching and hitting, there is little reason to believe Chicago will not take care of business. Furthermore, the Cubs’ home record far outpaces Pittsburgh’s road record.
Pick: Cubs -1.5 (-115, BetMGM)
Moneyline
I like Chicago to win, but I find more value in taking the run line.
Run Line (Spread)
As mentioned, I'm betting on the Cubs' run line.
Over/Under
I lean toward the Under, but I don't trust Burrows.
