The San Diego Padres host the Pittsburgh Pirates on May 30, 2025. First pitch from PETCO Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on SportsNet PT.
Read our Pirates vs Padres prediction and MLB player prop pick below.
My Pirates vs Padres Prediction
- Pirates vs Padres Picks: Mitch Keller Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135, DraftKings)
My Pirates vs Padres prediction is on Mitch Keller's strikeout total. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Padres Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -135 | 7.5 -102o / -118u | +164 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +114 | 7.5 -102o / -118u | -198 |
Alex Kolodziej’s Pirates vs Padres Preview
Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction
While Pirates starting pitcher Mitch Keller has amassed 26 strikeouts over the past four starts, our Action PRO Model projects him for just 3.9 on Friday against the Padres.
It’s tough to strike out the Padres. They’ve recorded the fewest against right-handed pitching of any MLB lineup (267, 21 fewer than the next closest team). They also rank second among all lineups in strikeouts per game (7.0), a mark that drops when they’re playing in San Diego (6.2).
Keller faced the Padres on May 2 and managed only three strikeouts across five innings while allowing four earned runs on eight hits and a walk — he earned only six whiffs on his 88 pitches thrown.
Keller has lost some stuff this year (96 Stuff+ rating across his arsenal), and he’s on pace for his lowest single-season swinging-strike rate since the 2020 COVID season (8.2%).
I don’t think he’ll improve upon his first performance against the Padres, especially now that he’ll be pitching on the road. Our proprietary betting models agree.
Pick: Mitch Keller Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135, DraftKings)
