MLB Odds, Player Prop Picks: Value on Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Royals

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Eduardo Rodriguez Over 5.5 Strikeouts

After a disappointing first year in Detroit, Eduardo Rodriguez is showing the promise that led to the Tigers giving him a five-year, $77 million contract. Across his 13 starts this season, the southpaw has compiled a 2.70 ERA.

On the strikeout front, Rodriguez has punched out 81 batters in 76.2 innings this season — his strikeout percentage has reverted to his Red Sox days when he K’d more than a batter per inning for five straight seasons.

Overall, despite managing an injury that cost him all of June, Rodriguez has cleared this strikeout line in eight of his last 10 starts.

In his third start back from his injury absence, I expect the Tigers to let their ace loose. And against the Royals, he gets a premier strikeout spot for a lefty hurler.

The Royals' strikeout rate of 24.5% against lefties is the seventh-highest in baseball. They’ve struggled even more of late, with a 26.6% K-rate versus lefties since June 1. And the risk of them chasing E-Rod is low, with only an 81 wRC+ and .688 OPS in the latter time frame. Both numbers rank in the bottom six in baseball.

After a short start from Tarik Skubal last night, I expect the Tigers to lean on Rodriguez to eat as many innings as he can today. I have the big lefty projected at 7 strikeouts, and I’d play this line up to -145.

Pick: Eduardo Rodriguez Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-120 · Play to -145)