PropBetGuy’s MLB Player Prop Betting Pick for Tuesday: Back the Ascending Tarik Skubal Against the Pirates (June 7)
David Berding/Getty Images. Pictured: Tarik Skubal
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Tarik Skubal Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-122)
|Prop||Tarik Skubal Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-122)|
|Matchup||Tigers vs. Pirates|
|Time||7:05 p.m. ET|
Perhaps overshadowed by his team’s lack of success in the win column, Tarik Skubal has emerged as the Tigers’ ace. 10 starts into his second full season in the majors, Skubal is pitching to a 2.15 ERA with 61 strikeouts in 58.2 innings. His strikeout numbers are especially impressive because eight of his 10 starts have been against teams with below-average Strikeout Rates against lefties.
Skubal’s progression from his rookie season is mainly due to his revamped pitch mix. Throwing more of his slider and changeup and fewer of his fastball combinations have kept hitters off balance. The results are not only seen with his impressive xERA of 2.68 but also a 2% bump in his Strikeout Rate.
Tonight, Skubal gets a softer matchup against the Pirates. Pittsburgh’s Strikeout Rate against lefties over the last month is 24.9% – the third-highest in baseball. The Pirates’ roster construction makes it difficult to avoid the vaunted lefty/lefty matchup, as we see tonight with three lefties slated to start.
Skubal should have his way with the Pirates’ hitters – I have winnable matchups versus seven of the nine batters he’ll face (all except Ke’Bryan Hayes and Bryan Reynolds). My projection of 7.0 strikeouts for the pride of the Tigers’ rotation makes the over a strong play here.
Pick: Tarik Skubal Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-122) | Play to (-140)
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