PropBetGuy’s MLB Player Prop Pick: How to Bet Andrew Heaney vs. Giants (Monday, September 5)
Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Andrew Heaney
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Andrew Heaney Strikeouts
|Prop||A. Heaney – Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-130)|
|Matchup||Giants vs. Dodgers|
|Time||10:10 p.m. ET|
Eyebrows were raised when the Los Angeles Dodgers made Andrew Heaney one of the first free-agent signings of this most recent offseason. The southpaw was coming off a season in which he pitched to a 5.83 ERA for the Angels and Yankees, and his career ERA was 4.72.
Well, as great teams do, the Dodgers saw something in Heaney. And despite the pitcher battling some injuries this season, he’s pitched to a 2.12 ERA in 46.2 innings with a whopping 70 strikeouts. Heaney has always possessed strikeout-inducing stuff – but his 13.5 strikeouts per nine innings and 35.4% strikeout rate are both easily career highs. So, what’s changed?
Well, Heaney eschewed the curveball (previously his secondary pitch) for a slider that he’s throwing at a slightly different arm angle than he has in the past. Not only has it added some velocity (averaging 83 mph), but it’s become one of the better pitches in baseball. Heaney has struck out 34 of 77 batters in plate appearances ending with the pitch, with a 50% whiff rate.
The overall results have Heaney ranking in the 95th percentile of whiff rate and chase rate, and the 98th percentile in strikeout rate.
The nine-year veteran gets the Giants today. Not only did he cruise to 7 strikeouts in 4 innings against San Francisco on just 74 pitches in early August, but the Giants have run a 24% K% against lefties since the beginning of July.
With Heaney fully stretched out, and the Dodgers coming off a bullpen game, I love this spot tonight. I have the southpaw projected at 8 strikeouts tonight, so I'll take o6.5 Ks at -130 and up to -140.
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