PropBetGuy’s MLB Player Prop Picks: Fade Tyler Glasnow in Tampa (Friday, July 7)

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Tyler Glasnow Under 17.5 Outs -125

The Rays got a much needed boost when their ace — Tyler Glasnow — returned to their major league rotation after his recovery from Tommy John surgery.

However, the results thus far have been spotty.

Over his first seven starts, Glasnow has pitched to a 4.50 ERA (5.06 xERA). He’s been able to complete six full innings only once, while he’s struggled with pitch efficiency.

If he had enough innings to qualify, Glasnow’s 4.06 pitches per plate appearance would be 17th-highest out of 107 starting pitchers.

A high number of pitches per plate appearance is not uncommon among power pitchers. Against the Braves, however, Glasnow gets a brutal matchup facing an offense that's been lights out of late.

No matter how you slice the data, the Braves' offense is really good. Over the last 30 days versus right-handed pitching in away games, Atlanta is second in baseball in two categories with its .925 OPS and 148 wRC+.

Aside from hitting the cover off the ball, the Braves will see plenty of pitches. Atlanta currently sits eighth on the leaderboard with 3.94 pitches seen per plate appearance.

Twenty of the last 25 right-handed starting pitchers have stayed under this line versus the powerful Braves lineup.

Glasnow was pushed to 102 pitches in his last start, a season high. With the All-Star break looming, we could see him once again pushing triple digits today.

However, I still have the Braves' bats chasing the big right-hander after 16 outs recorded.

Pick: Tyler Glasnow Under 17.5 Outs (-125) | Play to -140