Rangers vs Angels Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Monday, September 25
Ron Jenkins/Getty Images. Pictured: Nathaniel Lowe
Rangers vs. Angels Odds
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -125 | 9 -118o / -104u | -188 |
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +104 | 9 -118o / -104u | +158 |
The race for the AL West is coming down to the wire with the Rangers maintaining a 2 1/2 game lead over the Astros heading into the final week of play.
With the Angels already eliminated from the postseason, will they take on the role of spoiler on Monday, or are the Rangers in a good position here?
Let's break it all down in our Rangers vs. Angels preview and prediction.
The Rangers' magic number to clinch the AL West is five, and with the Astros playing a tough series in Seattle that number could quickly shrink over the next couple of days. Given the way this team is playing, their clinching moment could very well come before this three-game series in L.A. is over.
Texas has now won five in a row following its sweep of the Mariners this weekend, and its offense has shined brighter than ever. The Rangers own the second-best wRC+ in baseball over the last two weeks with a strong 11.7% walk rate and .221 Isolated Power.
While strikeouts have been a bit of an issue at 22.3%, the fact remains this team is still hitting .260 during that time and will have a great matchup against a left-handed pitcher on Monday. The Rangers are fourth in wRC+ to lefties for the season with an excellent 10% walk rate and similarly strong power numbers.
On the hill for the Rangers here is Jon Gray, who has had an utterly complicated season. At times, he's looked like a star, posting a 3.21 ERA through three months, and at times he's looked like he's pitching at Coors Field again, allowing 13 runs in 13 2/3 innings this month.
Gray's strikeout numbers are waning and he's now pitched to a 26.8% fly ball rate this year, marking a career-high. That number has only grown over the last two months, and in September his xBA is up to .277.
The Angels have looked very disinterested at the plate following countless injuries of great significance and a lot of back-breaking losses. They have now lost nine out of 11 games with fleeting offensive results, and in the last two weeks have really been done in by the strikeout with an insane 33.3% of all plate appearances ending in a third strike.
On top of that, they're walking just 5.3% of the time, but on the bright side their .169 ISO isn't really much to scoff at.
The approach for L.A. has been consistent all year. The Angels been home run-or-bust, ranking fifth in fly-ball rate and fourth-worst in strikeouts, sporting one of the strongest ISOs around. For the last two weeks, with a similarly strong ISO, this team has still ranked sixth in fly-ball rate.
Speaking of fly balls, the Angels' starter on Monday doesn't allow many. Patrick Sandoval has pitched to contact this year to varying results, carrying a career-low 19.8% strikeout rate into this one with a decent enough 47.6% ground ball rate. He's allowed an inordinate amount of line drives, however, checking in more than three points worse than the league average.
He's also posted a brutal .259 xBA, making it hard to get through starts, and he's compounded that with a 10.8% walk rate.
Rangers vs. Angels
Betting Pick & Prediction
Though the Angels have been dreadful at the plate over the last two weeks, I do think the conditions for both offenses to perform are fantastic. Each starting pitcher has some massive flaws, and in a hitter-friendly environment I do think the over is very much in play.
The Rangers' excellence against left-handed pitchers coupled with their supreme plate discipline should really make life difficult on Sandoval, who has allowed 10 walks and 26 hits in 18 2/3 innings this month. While he's kept the ball in the yard for the most part, the Rangers should have no issues loading up the bases with runners.
On the other side, Gray's concerning fly-ball numbers should make this one a great spot to believe in the Angels' power-hungry bats. Given the amount of fly balls they hit, and given the environment in which they'll be hitting on Monday, I would expect some loud contact.
With that, I think there's a lot of value in this number, even though it's a big one, and I'd play this to 9.5 runs.
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