Rangers vs Astros Odds, Pick, Prediction | ALCS Game 2
Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Corey Seager and Marcus Semien
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros odds for Game 2 of the ALCS opened with the Astros favored on the moneyline at -130. The Rangers are underdogs at +110.
The total in this game has been set at 8.5 and +100 to the over and -122 to the under. On the run line, the Astros are -1.5 (+168), while the Rangers are +1.5 (-205).
Read on for our Rangers vs Astros odds, pick and prediction for Game 2 of the ALCS.
Rangers vs. Astros ALCS Game 2 Odds
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +168 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +104 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -205 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -122 |
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Despite activating Max Scherzer ahead of the ALDS, the Rangers will opt to go with Nathan Eovaldi here following Jordan Montgomery's start in Game 1. The 33-year-old remained one of the more reliable starters in baseball this season as he recorded an ERA under four runs for a fourth straight season.
While his Walk Rate jumped a concerning 3.8 points to 8.1%, there's really nothing to shake a fist at here with Eovaldi. His strikeout numbers came in above the league average yet again, and his Expected Batting Average actually dropped from .258 to .237 because of an increase in ground balls.
That's now three seasons in a row that Eovaldi's seen growth in that area, and it's helped him remain effective into his 30s despite diminishing strikeout returns.
The right-hander is very familiar with the Astros. While he did welcome the Astros to Arlington earlier this year by spinning seven scoreless innings, he was shelled in his next turn against Houston a couple of months later when he failed to make it out of the second inning.
He was also shelled by this team in the 2019 postseason as a member of the Red Sox, and he didn't have much success against them last season either. All told, Houston's position players own a .265 xBA and .520 xSLG against Eovaldi over the course of his career.
Framber Valdez will counter for the Astros. The left-hander was absolutely dominant against the Rangers last season, registering a 1.56 ERA in five starts against his in-state rival.
However, Valdez followed that up with a 4.32 ERA against Texas this season, which makes sense given the step back Valdez took this year at age 29.
Once the best ground-ball pitcher in baseball, Valdez rolled 'em up at just a 55.2% clip this season — the lowest of his six-year career. It's rather significant given he's never been a pitcher who has induced soft contact, holding a 42.8% Hard-Hit Rate for his career, which is almost seven points higher than the league average.
As you might guess, his expected stats were rather abysmal. Valdez pitched to the worst xBA of his career at .251, and his .405 xSLG also beat his worst season by 26 points.
Despite earning a World Series ring for his excellent 2022 postseason, Valdez hasn't exactly been a reliable pitcher come October. His 3.82 postseason ERA is very unbecoming of the pitcher he's been throughout his career, and the last time he pitched in October, he suffered a loss in Game 2 of the ALDS after allowing five runs on seven hits and three walks over 4 1/3 frames against the Twins.
Rangers vs. Astros
Betting Pick & Prediction
This game features two offenses that have surged this October, facing two pitchers with very complicated numbers.
Eovaldi, theoretically, has a leg up on Valdez here, but it's tough to ignore Eovaldi's poor history against the Astros. He's been excellent to this point in the postseason with just two runs allowed in 13 2/3 innings, but Houston's offense will present his tallest task yet.
On the other side, Valdez is nowhere near the pitcher we've grown accustomed to watching, and he'll have to deal to a Rangers offense that finished fifth in wRC+ against left-handed pitchers this season.
On top of that, Texas is even more experienced against Valdez than Houston is against Eovaldi, and while the numbers don't pop as much, a .242 xBA is still noteworthy enough against a guy who has pitched to excellent xBA numbers for the last four seasons. The Rangers may have struggled to do damage against the ground-baller, but with more balls coming back into play with a higher trajectory, they've managed to get to him in 2023.
I lean toward the Astros in this matchup, but the best bet here is on the over. There's simply too much respect for Valdez baked into this line, and while I love how Eovaldi's pitched this year, the Astros' offense has been incredibly dangerous over the last two weeks.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-110)
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