Rangers vs Nationals Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Sunday, July 9
Jonathan Newton/The Washington Post via Getty Images. Pictured: Nationals pitcher Patrick Corbin.
Rangers vs Nationals Odds
-102 / -120
-102 / -120
The third and final game of this interleague series gets underway Sunday with the NL East's Washington Nationals hosting the AL West's Texas Rangers.
These teams split the first two meetings, with Texas winning, 7-2, on Friday and Washington rebounding with an 8-3 victory on Saturday. Will the Rangers take care of business as road favorites, or can the Nationals defend their home diamond once again?
Here's a look at the odds, as well as my Rangers vs. Nationals betting pick and prediction.
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Sitting in first place of the AL West with an impressive 52-38 record, the Rangers have relied on their powerful lineup to propel themselves into real contenders this year. Texas ranks in the top two of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, batting average, slugging percentage and OPS.
This team is very good at avoiding strikeouts. When facing left-handed pitching this season, the Rangers rank sixth in the league in K%. Looking at Sunday's projected lineup, five of the nine hitters possess a K% south of 21%.
This lineup was already performing well prior to the return of Corey Seager, and his presence has only elevated it into the powerhouse we see on a daily basis.
They should continue to thrive in this matchup against left-hander Patrick Corbin.
Corbin should be a great fade candidate in Sunday's contest. One of the betting community's favorite fades over the past couple of seasons, Corbin enters this matchup with a 5-10 record to go with a 5.13 ERA and 1.59 WHIP through 18 starts.
Not only are those surface-level stats terrible, but his underlying metrics are even worse. The left-hander ranks in the eighth percentile or lower in average exit velocity, xERA, xwOBA, xBA and xSLG.
Specifically, we're going to fade Corbin in the strikeout department. This season, he ranks in the ninth percentile or lower in both K% and Whiff%.
Corbin has now recorded three or fewer strikeouts in three of his past four starts. Over that stretch, he's gone 1-3 with a 6.26 ERA and 1.87 WHIP.
Rangers vs Nationals Betting Pick
Corbin's strikeout woes are likely to continue against Texas. Perhaps my biggest reason for fading Corbin's strikeout prop is the fact that the Rangers should tee off on him early, which is why the total sits at 10.5 in a game where Texas is laying north of -200 on the moneyline.
The Rangers crush left-handed pitching, and considering Corbin's track record, this game shouldn't be much different. It wouldn't be shocking if the left-hander is on a short leash if Texas jumps on him early.