Orioles vs Rangers Props Picks for Kyle Bradish
Maddie Meyer/Getty Images. Pictured: Kyle Bradish
The Texas Rangers and the Baltimore Orioles will kickstart today's divisional slate. Texas comes in after dominating the Tampa Bay Rays in the Wild Card round and appears to have all the elements to knock off its next AL East opponent.
However, the Baltimore Orioles are not your run-of-the-mill team. The Birds of the Beltway won their first division title since 2014, and this matchup will be their first playoff game since 2016.
You can bet they will be hyped up and have a passionate fan base behind them. However, it will all come down to the noise made on the field, as we should see some loud contact in this matchup.
Let's dive into two ways to capitalize on that in the player prop market.
Rangers vs. Orioles Game 1 Props
Building off some of the data above, we know Bradish is bound to give up some hard contact, and the Rangers are a team that will make him pay.
One man who is sure to be right in the middle of the action is Corey Seager. Seager put together a career season, hitting .327 with a career-high in RBI with 96.
Seager picked up right where he left off in the Wild Card Round as he hit .500 with a 1.475 OPS while driving in two runs. With Seager coming in swinging a hot bat, that'll only increase his chances for positive regression against Bradish.
Seager is hitless against Bradish in five at-bats, but has only struck out once and has a respectable average exit velocity of 88.8 mph. Given his recent stretch and the likelihood of having the table set in front of him, Seager is a strong candidate to drive in a run.
In addition to the matchup, we are getting some significant line value on the current price. Seager has driven in a run in 46 percent of the games he's played this season. That hit rate gives us implied odds of +117 that he'll do so this afternoon.
Pick: Corey Seager Over 0.5 RBI (+165 at DraftKings)
Kyle Bradish will get the ball for the Baltimore Orioles in Game 1 of this series, and the 27-year-old right-hander has earned it after a breakout regular season. Bradish pitched to a 2.83 ERA and held a 1.04 WHIP over 30 starts.
However, a closer look at his metrics points to some sizable regression. Bradish has an xERA of nearly a full run higher than his actual ERA, and that is because he's allowed quite a bit of loud contact.
His saving grace has been his ability to generate swings and misses down the stretch, but the Rangers appear to be a lineup that has his number. Texas has faced Bradish a combined 48 times and has just a 20.8% strikeout rate.
That rate is nearly a full three percent lower than their season average. So, with the Rangers seeing the ball well and Bradish due to wind up on the wrong end of some hard-hit balls, It's much more likely he will wind up going under this total.
On top of that, we have some decent line value at this price. Bradish has gone under this total in 53 percent of his starts, which gives implied odds of -113.
Pick: Kyle Bradish Under 5.5 strikeouts (-102 at FanDuel)
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