Red Sox vs Braves Prediction: MLB Odds & Tuesday Spread Pick

The Boston Red Sox and Atlanta Braves kick off a short two-game interleague series on Tuesday night at Truist Park. The Braves (20-12) are second in the NL East, while Boston (19-16) has exceeded expectations and sits in third place in the AL East.

Both pitchers in this matchup — Kutter Crawford for the Red Sox and Reynaldo Lopez for the Braves–  are having extraordinary seasons, posting sub-2.00 ERAs thus far.

Red Sox vs Braves odds have the Braves as heavy -192 home favorites on the moneyline, while the over/under sits at 8.5. I'll be targeting a different market, the run line (spread), for my Red Sox vs Braves prediction.

The biggest question when handicapping Red Sox vs Braves will revolve around the sustainability of what these hurlers have shown this year. Let's dive into it and make a Red Sox vs Braves pick.

Kutter Crawford has been ultra-reliable for the Red Sox this season. Through seven starts, Crawford has a 1.56 ERA over 40.1 IP. His peripheral numbers are strong but a bit worse than what his ERA would show. Crawford has a 2.93 xERA and 2.52 FIP on the season. That is largely because of his good fortune with runners on base, as he has stranded 82.2% of runners this season.

Crawford has been impressive, posting a Stuff+ of 108, which ranks 23rd of 80 qualifying pitchers. He is 52nd in Location+ and 23rd in Pitching+. He has an 84th percentile Chase%, 43rd percentile Whiff rate and 60th percentile K%.

The batted ball metrics from Crawford have been impressive as well. He ranks in the 89th percentile in average exit velocity allowed, 97th percentile in hard-hit rate and 61st percentile in barrel rate. All of those numbers bode well going forward for Crawford to sustain a good amount of his success.

The Red Sox rank 13th in wRC+ and ninth in wOBA this season. They rank third in ISO and sixth in SLG, so this team does have plenty of power. Boston is ninth in Barrel%, 18th in exit velocity and 19th in hard-hit rate.

Boston’s offense is around league average with a bit more power. This isn’t the toughest matchup, but the Red Sox can certainly make pitchers pay for giving them something to hit.

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Similarly to Crawford, Reynaldo López has a 1.50 ERA with a 3.23 xERA and 2.94 FIP. López has an astounding strand rate of 91.9%, which should obviously come back down to earth at some point. 

Of 112 pitchers with 30+ IP this year, López ranks 59th in Stuff+, 72nd in Location+ and 76th in Pitching+. Despite those lackluster stuff numbers, López does rank in the 74th percentile in strikeout rate and 77th in Whiff rate.

López has allowed a 70th percentile barrel rate, but 22nd percentile hard-hit rate and 29th percentile average exit velocity. Those aren’t ideal, but it will be interesting to see how this contact affects Lopez going forward.

Atlanta ranks first in MLB in exit velocity and hard-hit rate while coming in at fourth in barrel rate. They are fifth in wOBA and eighth in wRC+ this year, slightly performing those Statcast numbers. This shows up in their xwOBACON, which is third highest in the league at .399.

I give Crawford an edge over López in terms of their prospects for the rest of the season, as his Stuff+ and batted ball metrics both back up his performance to this point. However, Atlanta’s offense is one of the best in the league and will not be an easy matchup for Crawford.

The bullpens between these two are even as well. With a relatively even matchup on the mound, I give the Braves a slight edge here because of their offense, but this is already being priced into the market. I think the Red Sox are too big of underdogs, so I’ll take Boston +1.5 at -125 right now as this should be a close matchup.

Pick: Boston Red Sox +1.5 (-125)