Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction, Pick: Bet Monday Underdog?

Monday, May 27

1:05pm ET

NESN

Boston Red Sox Odds
Run Line	Over/Under	Moneyline
+1.5 -152	9 -118o / 104u	+132

Baltimore Orioles Odds
Run Line	Over/Under	Moneyline
-1.5 +126	9 -118o / -104u	-156

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Red Sox vs Orioles odds have the Orioles as -156 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 9 (-118o /-104u) for the Monday series opener at Camden Yards.

Right-hander Cooper Criswell is slated to take the mound for Boston while Baltimore hands the ball to left-hander Cole Irvin.

For my Red Sox vs Orioles prediction, I will be looking at the moneyline.

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Boston Red Sox

Criswell has gotten off to a tremendous start this season, posting a 2-1 record with a 2.86 ERA and 1.13 WHIP through his first eight appearances on the mound. His underlying metrics suggest regression shouldn't be too big of a concern, as the right-hander ranks in the 70th percentile in xERA and 63rd percentile in xBA.

Following Criswell is one of the best bullpens in baseball. Boston's relief pitching ranks in the top six of the league in ERA, FIP and xFIP.

This pitching staff should also get plenty of run support considering the Red Sox rank in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases. They should continue to succeed against Irvin, a pitcher whom this current lineup boasts a .285 xBA, .389 xSLG and .326 xwOBA against through 47 combined career plate appearances.

Baltimore Orioles

While Irvin has done a fine job this season between the rotation and the bullpen, his underlying metrics suggest regression is quickly looming. Entering this matchup, the southpaw ranks in the bottom half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.

This expected regression could come to fruition against Boston, a team he is 0-1 against through six career meetings with a fade-worthy 5.16 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Following Irvin is a bullpen that fails to crack the top 10 in ERA, FIP and xFIP.

Baltimore's lineup is its main strength. However, not a single batter on this team has ever faced Criswell before Monday, so it may take a few rotations through the batting order to figure him out.

Red Sox vs. Orioles

Betting Pick & Prediction

As the team with the better pitching across the board in Monday's matchup, Boston is worth backing at +140 via DraftKings. Criswell outranks Irvin in ERA, xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox's bullpen beats Baltimore's in ERA, FIP and xFIP. The only two advantages the Orioles possess in this game is their lineup and home-field.

However, considering Boston's lineup also ranks in the top half of the league in every key hitting stat, I don't agree that the small gap between the lineups plus Camden Yards equates to a -166 price on the moneyline for Baltimore.

Pick: Red Sox Moneyline (+140 at DraftKings | Play to +135)

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