MLB Odds & Picks for Rockies vs. Dodgers: Is Colorado Capable of Pulling Major Upset?
Matthew Stockman/Getty Images. Pictured: Connor Joe
- The Dodgers are pricey favorites at home tonight against the Rockies.
- Los Angeles sends Julio Urias to the mound, while Colorado will counter with Kyle Freeland.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.
Rockies vs. Dodgers Odds
|Over/Under||8.5 (-104 / -118)|
|Time||9:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The Dodgers are beginning to find their groove again, coming in winners of four games in five tries. Now, they’ll have an opportunity to avenge consecutive defeats at the hands of the Rockies, who have taken four of the six meetings so far against their NL West rivals.
Can Colorado do it again? Let’s dive into how this one will set up.
Rockies Are Downright Competent
It’s hard to have any complaints about where the Rockies are at the moment. They’re almost right at average with a 99 wRC+ in the last two weeks and are rocking a solid 8.9% walk rate and 18.2% strikeout rate during that time.
It’s very hard to find something they’re not at least average at, and they’re even elite in the contact department right now with an 80.6% contact rate in the last 14 days.
As for Colorado’s pitcher, Kyle Freeland, things could be going better. The lefty owns a 4.31 ERA and 5.02 xERA, striving for better results. His walk rate is pretty good, but he’s not striking anybody out at 15.4% and he’s allowed a 42.8% hard-hit rate and a .498 expected slugging.
While Freeland did struggle in his first start of the season against the Dodgers, allowing five runs in 3 2/3 innings, he did strike out six hitters and he also did cruise through three frames.
Freeland came out in his last start and limited the Dodgers to three runs on six hits over six innings, so it seems he might be in a decent enough spot here.
Dodgers’ Offense Clicking
For as well as the Dodgers have hit this year, they’re still middle-of-the-road when it comes to hitting lefties. L.A. is sporting a 108 wRC+ against southpaws, which ranks 12th, and while the Dodgers have gotten on base at a .327 clip, they’ve posted a low .160 ISO for their standards and a poor 22.5% strikeout rate.
With that said, things have been going well in the last two weeks overall. L.A. is fifth in on-base percentage, third in slugging and third in wRC+. Despite the solid results at the plate, though, the Dodgers own an ugly 25.6% strikeout rate and a very low 7.7% walk rate — which is completely out of character for them.
It’ll be another Julio Urias start on Monday, and that means we’ll be in for a real treat. He owns a 2.65 ERA and a 2.98 xERA, once again boasting one of the best hard-hit rates in the league at 27.3% with a solid .347 xwOBA on contact.
He’s recovered from a bit of a stumble in May, but it’s worth noting he’s allowed three earned runs in each of his two starts against the Rockies this year, spanning just 7 1/3 innings.
While Urias has absolutely shoved this year, the Rockies have not been a team that he’s been able to have success against. Colorado has been hitting the ball well and putting together good at-bats in the last couple of weeks, and I fancy its chances of getting a few runs across here.
I also am not the biggest fan of the way the Dodgers have hit in the last couple of weeks, and think they still have some serious issues against lefties.
I’m going to take a big swing here and grab the Rockies at a huge price.
Pick: Rockies ML (+245)