Rockies vs Phillies Prediction | MLB Picks, Odds Today (Wednesday, April 17)
Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Bryce Harper of the Philadelphia Phillies.
Rockies vs Phillies Prediction
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+188 | 8 -105o / -115u | +1.5 -114 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-225 | 8 -105o / -115u | -1.5 -105 |
The Colorado Rockies will look to avoid a three-game sweep when they take on the Philadelphia Phillies tonight.
Through the first two games of the series, neither team has shown much life of offense. Philadelphia has won by scores of 2-1 and 5-0, with the under easily cashing in both games.
The two pitchers who will toe the rubber to start this matchup — Ryan Feltner for Colorado and Christopher Sanchez for Philadelphia — have both fared well this year and will look to continue their success against two faltering offenses.
We've already witnessed it the last two nights, but this may once again have the formula for a low-scoring battle.
Let's dive make a Rockies vs. Phillies prediction for tonight's game after taking a look at the MLB odds for Wednesday, April 17.
Feltner will get the nod for the Rockies on Wednesday after an impressive start to the season. He has allowed only six runs in three starts with 18 strikeouts across 16 innings.
It’s hard to say if this start from Feltner is legitimate or not because we have some mixed signals between the metrics. His ERA comes in at 3.38, but he has a 2.43 xERA to go with a 3.93 FIP.
By Stuff+, Feltner has been a bit above average this season with a 101 Stuff+ and 102 Location+. This is supported by much of his Statcast data, as Feltner sits around or above average in many areas.
The Rockies haven’t been great offensively to this point, ranking 26th in wRC+ and 17th in wOBA. Their xwOBA is bottom-four in the league as well.
The Statcast data on this offense is more favorable when it's making contact. Colorado ranks fifth in hard-hit percentage and 10th in average exit velocity.
The Rox's biggest issue has been plate discipline, as they own the fourth-highest strikeout rate in the league and third-lowest walk rate.
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Philadelphia has had a slow start on offense to begin the year, ranking 24th in runs scored this year and 25th in wRC+. Despite that and their -7 run differential, the Phillies still sit in second place in the NL East with a 10-8 record.
Their struggles against right-handed pitching have been even more pronounced. The Phillies’ wRC+ mark of 69 ranks last in the league, and their .275 wOBA ranks 27th. They also have the ninth-highest strikeout rate against righties this season.
On the bump, Cristopher Sanchez has started the year well. He owns a 3.52 ERA, 3.23 xERA and a 2.66 FIP to go with 15 strikeouts in 15.1 IP. He also boasts a Stuff+ mark of 102 and a Location+ rating of 97.
These location issues do show up a bit in his Statcast numbers, as he ranks around average or below average in barrel percentage, hard-hit percentage and average exit velocity.
However, he has been good at inducing groundballs (93rd percentile) and has some of the best off-speed stuff in the game this season.
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Rockies vs Phillies
Betting Pick & Prediction
Both of these teams have had their struggles on offense this year, and I think we'll see that continue tonight.
Neither Feltner nor Sanchez are names that many would pick to engage in a pitching duel, but they both have had solid starts to the season and look to be solid pitchers by most metrics.
With two struggling offenses taking the field, bank on another low-scoring affair at Citizens Bank Park on Wednesday night.
Pick: Under 8 (-110)
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