Royals vs Blue Jays Odds, Prediction: Target KC Spread?

Royals vs Blue Jays odds have the Royals installed as -115 favorites on the moneyline, with an over/under of 8. For my Royals vs Blue Jays prediction, I will be looking at the run line.

Royals vs. Blue Jays on Thursday features Jose Berrios on the mound for Toronto and Cole Ragans for Kansas City.

Let's dive into my MLB betting preview and Royals vs Blue Jays pick.

Ragans is one of the best young pitchers in baseball, though his surface-level stats are heavily weighed down by his recent outing against the Baltimore Orioles. He got shelled in that outing, but anyone in this league can have a bad day, especially against a lineup as stacked as Baltimore's.

Prior to that outing, Ragans boasted a 2.60 ERA through his first three starts of the season. The former first-round pick's underlying metrics suggest that we should expect him to look more like he did in those first three starts than his most recent one, which makes sense.

The southpaw ranks in the 62nd percentile or higher in xERA and Barrel%. Furthermore, Ragans fared well in his lone career start against Toronto, allowing just two runs on one hit through nearly six innings of work.

Following Kansas City's ace is a bullpen that has gotten off to a strong start and ranks ninth in the league in ERA. The pitching staff should also get some solid run support as the Royals rank in the top 10 in runs scored per game, SLG, OPS and home runs.

That offense could take advantage of Berrios, a pitcher who is primed for regression.

The right-hander has gotten off to a nearly perfect start this season with a 4-0 record, a 0.85 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP through his first five outings. However, despite those incredibly impressive numbers, Berrios ranks in the 39th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and Hard-Hit%. Those analytics scream regression, and we are now in a great sell-high spot against the Royals.

Speaking of which, Berrios possesses a fade-worthy 5.44 ERA over his past eight starts against the Royals. And following the right-hander is a bullpen that can't be trusted. In fact, Toronto's relief pitching ranks in the bottom five of the league in ERA, FIP and xFIP.

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Run support may also be an issue for the Jays' pitching staff. Toronto ranks in the in bottom 10 of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, batting average and home runs.

Kansas City outranks the Blue Jays in all of those categories. Furthermore, we are catching Berrios in a sell-high spot against Ragans, whom I believe is the stronger pitcher regardless.

Mix in the fact that the Royals also possess the stronger bullpen and are playing in front of their home fans, and I think there are a lot of reasons to be optimistic for a multi-run win.

Pick: Royals -1.5 (+170 at bet365 | Play to +160)