The San Francisco Giants host the San Diego Padres on August 11, 2025. First pitch from Oracle Park is scheduled for 9:45 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on NBCS-BA.
Find my MLB betting preview and Padres vs Giants prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Padres vs Giants Prediction
- Padres vs Giants picks: Under 7.5
My Padres vs Giants best bet is Under 7.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Giants Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -197 | 7 -124o / 102u | +109 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +160 | 7 -124o / 102u | -132 |
Padres vs Giants Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Yu Darvish (SDP) | Stat | RHP Logan Webb (SFG) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | W-L | 10-8 |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 4.0 |
| 6.51 / 3.67 | ERA /xERA | 3.24 / 3.70 |
| 4.27 / 4.44 | FIP / xFIP | 2.53 / 2.65 |
| 1.34 | WHIP | 1.25 |
| 10.1% | K-BB% | 21.3% |
| 47.6% | GB% | 51.2% |
| 100 | Stuff+ | 105 |
| 92 | Location+ | 109 |
The Betting Insider’s Padres vs Giants Preview
San Diego Padres Betting Preview
Yu Darvish is working his way back from left elbow inflammation that put him on the 60-day IL earlier this season. At first glance, his 2025 line doesn’t inspire much confidence. He’s posted a 1–3 record with a 6.51 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP through 27.2 innings. However, the advanced metrics tell a much more encouraging story, and the contact profile against Darvish has been excellent. He’s allowed just an 88.2 mph average exit velocity, a 36.1% hard-hit rate, and a 48.2% ground-ball rate, with a 3.67 xERA, signaling that better results might be on the way.
The veteran right-hander’s arsenal remains as deep and deceptive as ever, mixing up to nine pitches. His sinker/slider/curveball combination has generated consistent soft contact this season, while his splitter and sweeper continue to frustrate hitters who are forced to respect multiple speeds and movement profiles.
The Giants offense has struggled at home all year long, and it’s only gotten worse as of late. They rank dead last in runs scored, batting average, and OPS at home since the start of July. They were also shut out last night at home against the Nationals.
San Francisco Giants Betting Preview
Logan Webb is quietly putting together another ace-caliber campaign for San Francisco, entering this start at 10–8 with a 3.24 ERA and 165 strikeouts in 147.1 innings. Webb’s approach is straightforward yet highly effective: pound the zone, generate ground balls, and avoid free passes. His 51.2% ground-ball rate ranks among the league’s best, and his 2.53 FIP and 2.63 xFIP back up the legitimacy of his results. When Webb is locating his sinker and changeup, opponents rarely find the barrel.
He had an uncharacteristically poor stretch in July but has quickly bounced back, allowing just 2 earned runs across his last two starts. He now heads back home to Oracle Park where he’s been dominant, posting a sub-3.00 ERA in every season since 2020 and a 2.78 ERA through 74 innings this season.
Padres vs Giants Prediction, Betting Analysis
Oracle Park is one of the most pitcher-friendly venues in Major League Baseball. Statcast park factors consistently rank it near the bottom in home run and overall run production, with the cool Bay Area air and spacious dimensions swallowing up would-be extra-base hits.
The temperature is expected to be in the high 50’s to low 60’s tonight, which, along with the Giants aforementioned offensive struggles, has triggered some of The Betting Insider’s best MLB systems. Check them out below!
System) Home teams off a shutout loss at home (60% win rate, 16% ROI)
– Home team scored 0 runs in their previous game
– Home team is playing their 2nd, 3rd, or 4th consecutive game at home
– Home ML range between -225 and +115
– Average temperature is below 75 degrees
– The under is receiving no more than 45% of public bets
System) Cold Weather with reverse line movement (61% win rate, 18% ROI)
– Average temperature is below 65 degrees
– The under is receiving less than 33% of public bets
– The Over/Under change from open to close is between -0.5 and -1.5
– Since 2020
Pick: Under 7.5
Moneyline
No bet
Run Line (Spread)
No bet
Over/Under
As mentioned, we are taking Under 7.5
