The St. Louis Cardinals host the San Diego Padres on Thursday, July 24, 2025. First pitch from Busch Stadium is scheduled for 7:45 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on SDPA and MLB.TV.
In Thursday night's matchup, we’re betting a negative correlation play that could go nuclear: Manny Machado to hit at least 1 home run and under 8 total runs.
Read our Padres vs Cardinals predictions and MLB same-game parlay picks below.
San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction
- Manny Machado 1+ Home Runs
- Under 8
Parlay Odds: +1200
Padres vs Cardinals Odds, Spread, Lines
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -173 | 8 -119o / -108u | +130 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 8 -119o / -108u | -162 |
Padres vs Cardinals Projected Pitchers
| RHP Yu Darvish (SD) | Stat | RHP Sonny Gray (SL) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | W-L | 9-4 |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.9 |
| 6.08 / 4.29 | ERA / xERA | 4.04 / 3.82 |
| 3.92 / 5.15 | FIP / xFIP | 2.88 / 2.89 |
| 1.50 | WHIP | 1.15 |
| 1.7 | K-BB% | 23.0 |
| 57.1 | GB% | 40.3 |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 88 | Location+ | 102 |
Padres vs Cardinals Pick, Parlay
Manny Machado 1+ Home Run
Manny Machado is having a solid season. He’s hitting .285 with 18 home runs and 61 RBIs.
I still believe Manny will certainly break 30 homers this season for the Padres, with the possibility of pushing 40 if he gets hot.
Against Sonny Gray, he also has solid numbers: 11 hits in 30 at-bats, with 11 RBIs.
Thursday provides a solid matchup that he can take advantage of. Machado poses the biggest threat in the entire game tonight to hit a dinger, and we’ll certainly back that.
Over/Under Pick: Under 8
The under is the negative correlation piece. Without it, Machado is just +400 to hit a home run.
With the pitchers on the mound tonight, if Yu Darvish can keep the Cardinals off the base path, the Under should cash with ease.
Padres vs Cardinals MLB Same-Game Parlay
- Manny Machado 1+ Home Runs
- Under 8
Parlay odds: +1200 (DraftKings)
