MLB Player Props: Saturday’s 2 Best Bets for Jeffrey Springs & Julio Urias
Photo by Brandon Sloter/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Julio Urias (Dodgers)
- Dive into the MLB player props market by betting on a certain Dodgers pitcher tonight.
- Julio Urias should be faded tonight in the strikeout department as he takes on the Guardians.
- Find out why below as Doug Ziefel breaks it all down.
The weekend is upon us, and to get it started off on the right foot, I’ve pinpointed two lefties who are in for very different outings today.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
We’ve got a lot to break down, so let’s get this show on the road.
Jeffrey Springs Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-148/+110)
|Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles|
|First Pitch||4:05 p.m. ET|
|Best Line: Rays -150||DraftKings|
Springs’ transition from the bullpen to the rotation has been seamless thus far. He’ll enter this outing with a sparkling 1.45 ERA while averaging over a strikeout per inning.
Today, he gets to match up with a divisional foe, the Baltimore Orioles.
The Orioles have not handled left-handed pitching well at all this season. As a result, they come in with the sixth-lowest batting average and eighth-lowest wRC+. However, the most important statistic is that they also hold the second-highest strikeout rate against lefties in the majors.
Springs’ most effective weapon for securing punch-outs is his change-up. However, coming in at an average of 10 mph slower than his fastball has caused a ton of swings and misses. In fact, batters have whiffed on it 38.8% of the time this season.
The Orioles have not done all that well against off-speed pitches. They only have three players with a positive run value against them, and only three hitters in their lineup have a whiff rate of less than 20% against change-ups.
Springs should rack up the Ks today.
Pick: Over 4.5 (-148)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Julio Urias Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/+100)
|Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Dodgers|
|First Pitch||7:15 p.m. ET|
|Best Line: Dodgers -225||DraftKings|
We’ve seen Urias’ stuff tick down a bit this season, as his average fastball velocity is down two mph. While that has not impacted his overall success, it has caused a drop in strikeouts. Urias’ strikeout rate is down nearly 5% from last season.
Today, he’ll get a surging lineup that does not like to strikeout often.
The Guardians are not a team that will do a ton of damage offensively, but they just keep putting the ball in play until something good happens. They have the sixth-lowest strikeout rate against lefties this season and the lowest overall strikeout rate in the majors.
Urias may be coming off a big performance against San Francisco — where he recorded 10 strikeouts — but he’s only gone under this total in seven of his 10 starts.
So, after an outlier game, it’s time he comes crashing back down to his average, which is under the total for this matchup.
Pick: Under 4.5 (+100)
Action Labs Grade: 7/10