Saturday MLB Props, PrizePicks Plays: Dodgers Hitters Worth Stacking Against Hunter Greene, Reds (April 16)
Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images. Pictured: Justin Turner
Player props have become among the most popular bets in the industry, but while the amount of states with legalized gambling is growing, some may feel left out.
Enter: PrizePicks.
With PrizePicks, you get the opportunity to essentially parlay game prop over/unders with cash payouts depending on how many you get correct on that day’s slate.
Therefore, let’s take a look at some of the options on today’s Major League Baseball slate and see where we can find some value to turn a profit.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different O/U player props to payout up to 10x your wager.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. Meanwhile, a Power Play is similar to a parlay — it’s all or nothing.
Here’s how I would approach today’s slate in Major League Baseball.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
MLB PrizePicks Plays for Saturday, April 16th
Justin Turner Over 1.5 Hits + Walks
In the third outing of this four-game series, the NL West's Los Angeles Dodgers will look to continue their hot streak as they host the NL Central's Cincinnati Reds. Turner has gone over this figure in four of his last five games and has a great matchup to do so once again.
Right-handed rookie pitcher Hunter Greene is projected to take the mound for the Reds and has an extremely tough matchup ahead of him in this game. While Greene did rack up a lot of strikeouts in his debut, the rest of his performance was mediocre as he posted a .401 xwOBA, .270 xBA and .682 xSLG.
Turner proved to be much better against right-handers last season as he posted a .286 BA, .375 OBP, .463 SLG, and .837 OPS.
Gavin Lux Hitter Fantasy Score Over 5
Another Dodgers batter I am backing his contest is Gavin Lux, who has gotten off to an incredible start this season. Lux has gone over this figure in every game he has started this year and is in a good spot to do so once again.
Currently, Lux possesses a .494 xwOBA, .327 xBA and .597 xSLG. Like Turner, Lux was much better against right-handers as he posted a .260 AVG, .343 OBP, .404 SLG, and .747 OPS.
Mike Moustakas Under 0.5 Total Bases
I will also be fading a few Reds hitters in this matchup, including Mike Moustakas. Moustakas has had a terrible start to his season as he possesses a .120 xwOBA, .130 xBA, and .151 xSLG.
He has not had much success in his career against left-hander Julio Urias, the projected starting pitcher for the Dodgers. Though a small sample size of only five plate appearances, Moustakas possesses a mere .063 xBA, .070 xSLG and .057 xwOBA.
Left-handed pitchers were a tough task, to say the least, for Moustakas to hit against last season as he posted a .086 BA, .214 OBP, .114 SLG and .329 OPS.
Jonathan India Hitter Fantasy Score Under 5.5
The other Reds hitter I am fading in this matchup is Jonathan India, who has also had a slow start to the season. Thus far, India possesses a .244 xwOBA, .225 xBA, and .308 xSLG.
In his two career plate appearances against Urias, India is 0-for-2 with two strikeouts. It is also worth noting that India has been dealing with a nagging hamstring injury, and even though he is projected to start this game in the leadoff spot, I would not be surprised if he gets pulled before the game is over.
Jose Altuve Hitter Fantasy Score Under 8.5
We have the second matchup of a three-game AL West divisional series between the Houston Astros and the Seattle Mariners. This number is once again far too high for Altuve because of his name as he has gone under this total in four of his six games this year.
Altuve has had a tough start to the season as he currently possesses a .262 xwOBA, .180 xBA and .309 xSLG. Last season, Altuve was worse on the road as he posted a .261 BA, .326 OBP, .423 SLG and .750 OPS when playing away from home.
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