The Cleveland Guardians (40-39) host the St. Louis Cardinals (44-38) on June 27, 2025. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on Apple TV+.
Find my MLB betting preview and Cardinals vs Guardians prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
The St. Louis Cardinals open their road series against the Cleveland Guardians as slight moneyline favorites at -125, while the Guardians come in at +105. The run line favors St. Louis at -1.5, and the total sits at 8.5 runs.
My Cardinals vs Guardians Prediction, Pick
- Cardinals vs Guardians picks: Cardinals ML (-120, BetMGM)
My Cardinals vs Guardians best bet is Cardinals ML. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cardinals vs Guardians Odds
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -120 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +100 |
Cardinals vs Guardians Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Sonny Gray (STL) | Stat | RHP Luis L. Ortiz (CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | W-L | 4-8 |
| 1.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 3.72 / 3.99 | ERA /xERA | 4.30 / 4.53 |
| 3.19 / 3.11 | FIP / xFIP | 3.98 / 3.64 |
| 1.19 | WHIP | 1.41 |
| 21.0% | K-BB% | 14.1% |
| 38.7% | GB% | 47.1% |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 100 |
| 102 | Location+ | 94 |
Cardinals vs Guardians Pick, Best Bets
Both teams are coming off rough offensive showings — the Cardinals were shut out in back-to-back games by the Cubs (8-0 and 3-0), while the Guardians dropped their most recent match 6-0 to the Blue Jays.
But for Game 1 of this interleague set, the edge belongs to the road team.
Veteran right-hander Sonny Gray gets the start for St. Louis. He’s posted a solid 3.47 ERA across 19 career regular-season outings against the Guardians, along with 100 strikeouts.
On the other side, Luis L. Ortiz will take the mound for Cleveland after a sharp outing in which he matched a career high with 10 strikeouts and tossed six scoreless innings.
Still, this is precisely the kind of setup targeted by Evan Abrams’ “Road Tilt in the Dead Heat” system, which highlights non-division matchups between closely matched teams (based on win percentage) where one is modestly priced as a road favorite.
When oddsmakers shade the line toward a visiting team without a glaring statistical edge, it often signals underlying confidence not yet baked into public perception.
That’s the case here with the Cardinals, who carry more upside with Gray on the hill and are quietly positioned for a bounce-back after a tough series in Chicago.
Pick: Cardinals ML (-120, BetMGM)
