Sunday MLB Props Odds, Picks & Predictions: 2 Bets for Chris Archer & Cristian Javier (August 7)
David Berding/Getty Images. Pictured: Chris Archer #17 of the Minnesota Twins.
- Our MLB props analyst has found two strikeout totals with value for Sunday.
- He's fading Chris Archer and backing Cristian Javier in their starts today.
- Check out Doug Ziefel's picks and analysis below.
Yesterday we broke even despite Shane McClanahan struggling to put Detroit's hitters away. However, that's all history now, as I've pinpointed two more starters with plus-money strikeout totals who are primed to give us a winning weekend. So let's find out who they are and how we're betting them.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I'll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Christian Javier Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+100)
|Astros vs. Guardians||Astros -145|
|First Pitch||12:05 p.m. ET|
This is one of the most contrarian strikeout prop plays you can make on the board today. The Guardians have had the lowest team Strikeout Rate in the majors for a majority of the season now. However, if there's one pitcher who can go over his total against them, it's Cristian Javier.
Javier has had a tremendous season as he enters with a 3.24 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. Although his most eye-popping stat is the 128 strikeouts, he has tallied them in just 94 innings of work. That level of efficiency puts him in the top-four percent of the league in Strikeout Rate.
His bread and butter this season has been his slider. Opponents are hitting just .143 off it this season, and it has a 40 percent Whiff Rate. While the Guardians' low Strikeout Rate as a whole might be intimidating, they actually have six hitters in their lineup who strikeout over 20 percent of the time.
It just so happens that six is our magic number here, and Javier has the upside to get there. He's gone over this total in seven of his last 10 starts, and this afternoon he should make it eight of his last 11.
Pick: Christian Javier Over 5.5 Strikeouts
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
Chris Archer Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110)
|Blue Jays vs. Twins||Toronto -165|
|First Pitch||2:10 p.m. ET|
Chris Archer has been regressing for some time now, and the Twins have managed him uniquely in order to maximize his effectiveness. However, despite how well he's done in select outings, they have not let him throw more than five innings in any start thus far. That has significantly limited his strikeout upside as he needs to average a strikeout per inning to go over this total, and he hasn't done that this year.
This afternoon he will be up against a loaded Blue Jays lineup that has been seeing the ball exceptionally well lately. During with their hot streak, they have struck out significantly less as Toronto has the sixth-lowest Strikeout Rate in the majors since the start of the second half.
Archer has gone under this total in 61 percent of his starts this season, which implies -157 odds that he will do so again. Then add in this unfavorable matchup, and his window to go over today is even more minuscule.
Pick: Under 3.5 Strikeouts +110
Action Labs Grade: 10/10