Sunday MLB Props Odds, Picks: Our 2 Best Bets, Featuring Dylan Cease & Dane Dunning (July 31)
Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images. Pictured: Texas Rangers starting pitcher Richard Rodriguez.
We split our best bets on Saturday’s Major League Baseball card, Clayton Kershaw not being able to conquer his Coors Field demons.
However, we’re back for some more action on Sunday with two strikeout props wagers. That said, let’s dive into our top plays and get our strikeout counter warmed on the latest slate.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Dylan Cease — Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-143)
|Athletics @ White Sox|
|First Pitch||2:10 p.m. ET|
I’m fading our Action Labs projections with this pick because it’s hard to quantify just how nasty Dylan Cease has been this season. Cease has literally been lights out for the last two months, joining Bob Gibson as the only other pitcher to allow three earned runs in an 11-start span.
His dominance comes from his overpowering stuff that has been nearly untouchable. His strikeout and whiff rates are among the top five percent of all qualified pitchers. He enters this outing fourth in the majors in strikeouts, and if he goes over his total, he’ll be tied for the lead at a minimum after this start.
The likelihood of that happening is higher than the odds imply. Cease gets to face an Oakland lineup that is statistically the worst in baseball. The Athletics also boast the sixth-highest strikeout rate in the league.
On top of that, Cease has cleared this total in 70 percent of his starts. So, that gives us -233 implied odds that he will go over the number again.
Pick: Total Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-143)
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
Dane Dunning — Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-120)
|Rangers @ Angels|
|First Pitch||4:07 p.m. ET|
We’re going to attack another lineup that has been able to power its stadium with the wind from all their whiffs this season.
The Los Angeles Angels come into this matchup with the highest strikeout rate in the majors. As a team, they strike out five percent more than the league average. The Angels are always a strikeout total target, giving the man on the mound against them tremendous value in this meeting.
Dane Dunning is not your prototypical strikeout artist, as he only averages about 4,6 strikeouts per start. However, that number is still higher than what his total is here. In addition, we’ve already seen him feast on this Angels lineup. He struck out seven Angels on April 14 and six more on May 18.
Now, he gets them at their lowest point thus far since the Angels are without Mike Trout and potential sellers with the deadline approaching. That said, look for Dunning to go over his total again against the lowly Angels.
Pick: Total Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-120)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
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