The Baltimore Orioles host the Tampa Bay Rays on June 28, 2025. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FDSSUN.
The Orioles thrashed the Rays 22-8 yesterday in the opener of this three-game series, and will send Zach Eflin to the mound. Zack Littell gets the ball for the Rays to try to bounce back today.
Find our MLB betting preview and Rays vs Orioles prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
Our Rays vs Orioles Prediction
- Rays vs Orioles picks: Under 9.5 (-102, BetMGM)
Our Rays vs Orioles best bet is Under 9.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rays vs Orioles Odds
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 9.5 -118o / -102u | -105 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 9.5 -118o / -102u | -115 |
Rays vs Orioles Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Zack Littell (TB) | Stat | RHP Zach Eflin (BAL) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-7 | W-L | 6-4 |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.3 |
| 3.78/4.58 | ERA /xERA | 5.46/4.01 |
| 5.15/4.15 | FIP / xFIP | 5.54/4.25 |
| 1.10 | WHIP | 1.38 |
| 14.1 | K-BB% | 11.9 |
| 41.8 | GB% | 40.6 |
| 85 | Stuff+ | 93 |
| 104 | Location+ | 106 |
Rays vs Orioles Preview
If you judge by yesterday's 22-8 score, the under would not be a wise choice, of course. However, keep in mind that the pitchers that got pounded, Tomoyuki Sugano and Ryan Pepiot, were not supposed to, so such an event remains an outlier.
The Rays, for example, have been involved in three straight games that hit the under before yesterday.
The Orioles were bound to wake up offensively, but they have not been as productive as expected all season long, now ranking 23rd in average with .240 and improving to 15th overall in wRC+ with 101 after a really slow start.
Both starters today have numbers that suggest positive regression, especially the Orioles' Zach Eflin, with his expected ERA and FIP way below his current marks.
The Rays' Zack Littell already had a quality start against Baltimore on June 17, allowing three earned runs in six innings.
The F5 line for this game triggers our Bet Labs Low Total Unders with Line Movement (F5) system, and points to the under for the entire game as our recommendation.
Rays vs Orioles Prediction, Betting Analysis
This MLB first five innings system, titled "Low Total Unders with Line Movement (F5)," is built around early-game environments where oddsmakers and sharp bettors anticipate limited scoring.
The foundation starts with a low closing total—between 3.5 and 6.5—indicating a strong pitcher’s duel or poor hitting conditions.
If the full game total has moved down between half a run and one run from open to close, it signals smart money pushing the market toward the under.
The model further refines this edge by requiring the juice on the under to remain within a sharp range, typically between -149 and -120, avoiding inflated pricing that could distort value.
Games played in modest wind conditions—between four and nine miles per hour—are included, as they often suppress offense without triggering dramatic public reaction.
By isolating games across the past three seasons and targeting first-half unders in tightly lined, downward-trending markets, this system captures value where the market signals defensive control without overreaction.
Pick: Under 9.5 (-102, BetMGM)
