The New York Mets (45-24) host the Tampa Bay Rays (36-32) on Friday, June 13, 2025. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on SNY and FanDuel Sports Sun.
Find my Rays vs Mets prediction for the first five innings (F5) below.
Rays vs Mets Prediction, F5 Pick
- Rays vs Mets picks: F5 Under 4.5 (Play to 4)
My Rays vs Mets best bet is the first five innings total to go under 4.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Mets Odds
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -152 | 8 -115o / -106u | +145 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +123 | 8 -115o / -106u | -177 |
Rays vs Mets Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Taj Bradley (TB) | Stat | RHP Clay Holmes (NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-5 | W-L | 7-3 |
| 0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.0 |
| 4.58/3.33 | ERA /xERA | 2.95/3.89 |
| 4.38/4.05 | FIP / xFIP | 3.83/3.61 |
| 1.25 | WHIP | 1.19 |
| 11.9 | K-BB% | 13.9 |
| 48.8 | GB% | 54.3 |
| 99 | Stuff+ | 102 |
| 90 | Location+ | 103 |
Rays vs Mets MLB Preview, Prediction
Rays Betting Preview: Rays Rolling, But Holmes May Halt Momentum
The RAys enter this series on an upswing, as they've won six of their last 10 ball games. They've been rolling offensively over the last two weeks, as they're 11th in wRC+ and seventh in ISO over that span.
The majority of that damage has come against right-handed pitching as well. The Rays are 10th in wRC+ and fourth in BABIP against righties.
However, tonight they'll face a righty in Clay Holmes, who may be their kryptonite.
We know how well the Rays have done against righties this season, but they have a flaw that could prove fatal in this matchup. Tampa Bay holds the third-highest ground ball rate in the majors.
Holmes' key to success this season has been generating ground balls at an elite rate. His ground ball rate sits in the 90th percentile and should be the reason why the Rays' lineup is neutralized in the early going.
Mets Betting Preview: Top Offense Meets Underrated Righty
As for the Mets, they come into this series red-hot (winners of six straight) while boasting the best record in baseball. Their bats have been red hot, as well, as they lead the majors in wRC+, OPS and ISO over the last two weeks.
The Mets' lineup has become very difficult to navigate, and that challenge will be tasked to Taj Bradley tonight.
However, a closer look shows that Bradley is due for success.
The right-hander enters with a 4.58 ERA but has excelled in generating soft contact with his hard-hit rate allowed ranking in the 74th percentile and his barrel rate allowed sitting in the 85th percentile.
Additionally, the majority of the contact generated against Bradley has been on the ground, with his ground ball rate in the 78th percentile.
All of this makes Bradley a guy to back tonight, even against the Mets.
Rays vs Mets Prediction, Betting Analysis
It's clear both starters are in line for success tonight, and that's why we've seen the full-game total begin to drop.
However, the Mets completed a sweep of the Nationals yesterday afternoon and had to use many of their high-leverage relief arms to do so after Kodai Senga left in the sixth with an injury.
While the Mets' bullpen has been the best in baseball, there's no reason to risk backing them when they aren't at full strength.
Instead, we can depend on Holmes and Bradley to keep the scoring to a minimum by taking the under in the first five.
Pick: F5 Under 4.5
Moneyline
I have no play on the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I have no play on the run line.
Over/Under
I'm taking the first five under.
