The Seattle Mariners host the Texas Rangers on July 31, 2025. First pitch from T-Mobile Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on RSN.
Find my MLB betting preview and Rangers vs Mariners prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Rangers vs Mariners Prediction
- Rangers vs Mariners pick: Mariners Moneyline (-152 | Play to -165)
My Rangers vs Mariners prediction is Mariners moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rangers vs Mariners Odds
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -175 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | +130 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -155 |
Rangers vs Mariners Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Kumar Rocker (TEX) | Stat | RHP George Kirby (SEA) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-4 | W-L | 5-5 |
| 0.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 5.73 / 5.53 | ERA /xERA | 4.50 / 3.80 |
| 4.53 / 4.05 | FIP / xFIP | 3.71 / 3.32 |
| 1.44 | WHIP | 1.15 |
| 12.1% | K-BB% | 19.1% |
| 49.2% | GB% | 46.2% |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 98 | Location+ | 115 |
Tony Sartori’s Rangers vs Mariners Preview
Texas Rangers Betting Preview
Kumar Rocker carried a lot of hype following his selection by Texas with the third overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft. However, he has failed to live up to those expectations.
Through his first 16 major league starts, Rocker is 4-6 with a 5.43 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. His underlying metrics this season suggest those struggles will likely continue.
The right-hander ranks in the 10th percentile or lower in expected ERA (xERA), expected batting average (xBA), barrel rate and hard-hit rate. Furthermore, Rocker has struggled against Seattle.
Through two starts against the Mariners this season, he is 0-1 with a 4.82 ERA and 1.29 WHIP.
Making Rocker's job more difficult is his lack of run support, as the Rangers rank in the bottom 10 of the league in runs per game, hits per game, slugging percentage and OPS.
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview
The clear hitting advantage belongs to Seattle, which enters this matchup outranking Texas in each of those four categories.
Not only do the Mariners have the hitting edge, but they also boast the pitching advantage. George Kirby is having a down year, but his analytics suggest a stronger second half.
Kirby ranks in the top half of the league in xERA, strikeout rate and walk rate. That expected positive regression could come to fruition against Texas, a team he has historically dominated.
Through nine career starts against the Rangers, Kirby is 7-0 with a 1.15 ERA and 0.77 WHIP.
This current Texas roster has a .211 batting average and .293 slugging percentage through 138 combined plate appearances against him.
Rangers vs Mariners Prediction, Pick
Seattle also holds home-field advantage, where it is above .500 this year. Texas, by contrast, is below .500 on the road.
The only advantage Texas holds in this matchup is in relief pitching. However, that alone doesn't justify the low -152 price on the Mariners, considering they possess every other edge.
Pick: Mariners moneyline (-152 | Play to -165)
Moneyline
As mentioned, I'm betting the Mariners moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I also like Seattle to cover, but I find more value in just taking the outright moneyline price.
Over/Under
I lean toward the over, but don't want to fade Kirby.
